000 
FXUS62 KILM 160503 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO MARINE SHORT AND LONG TERM 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1139 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND 
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT 
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD 
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE 
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM TUESDAY...NW-N SURGE AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL 
COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT. INLAND...SFC BASED INVERSION TAKING SHAPE 
ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE. WITH RAD COOLING CONDITIONS...WILL 
LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP PRETTY QUICKLY WITH PRESCRIBED LOWS ON TARGET. 
SFC PG WILL RELAX ACROSS THE REMAINING COASTAL LOCATIONS AFTER 
06Z...ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DROP BELOW 5 MPH AND POSSIBLY GO CALM. 
THIS CULD ALSO LEAD TO MIN TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH 
CURRENT VALUES. CI SHIELD TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AFFECTING THE AREA WITH MAINLY THIN RATHER 
THAN OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3PM TUESDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH RESPECT TO THE FCST 
FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. UNFORTUNATELY 
SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING P-TYPE ISSUES AT THE ONSET OF 
PRECIP ALSO REMAINS. EXTREMELY DRY AIR (DP OF -40C AT 700MB 00Z 
THURSDAY) WILL BE THE BIG PLAYER IN CREATING BOUNDARY LAYER WETBULB 
VALUES THAT ARE LIKELY BEING POORLY HANDLED BY GUIDANCE, WHICH STILL 
LARGELY DOUBTS THERE ARE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. FOR THE MOST PART 
CONTINUITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED....SLOWLY BRINGING JUST RAIN INTO 
SRNMOST ZONES BY ABOUT 06Z (WHERE TEMPS WILL BE JUST WARM ENOUGH). 
RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA BY 09Z AND AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR 
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE 
TO A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS WARM AIR ALOFT INCREASES. NO ACCUMS OF 
ANYTHING FROZEN IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. BY 12Z PRECIP SHOULD BE 
ALL RAIN. BIG QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF IT DO WE SEE. WRF HAS VERY 
HIGH AMOUNTS THAT EXTEND CLEAR ACROSS THE STATE BUT ALSO SEEM TO 
STEM FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS LOW LEVEL PV INCREASES QUITE A BIT 
WITH THE LOW. GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT A HALF INCH OF MUCH NEEDED 
RAINFALL...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO THE COAST. 

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED E OF THE AREA ON FRI 
WILL SHIFT BACK W NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SAT OR SUN AS WAVE IN THE 
NRN GOMEX DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND TRACKS ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA AND 
THEN MOVES NE ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL 
AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN 
THE GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. LEANING IN FAVOR OF 
SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH THE GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING TO. THE MAIN 
REASON FOR THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IS HOW THE GUIDANCE IS HANDLING 
THE UPPER TROF THAT DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL US AND HELPS PUSH THE 
SURFACE FEATURE ENE.

ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA THE PREVIOUSLY 
MENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINING ANOTHER ARCTIC 
AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH 
TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROF TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE RETURN 
FLOW ON TUESDAY. COASTAL TROF MAY RESULT IN SOME PRECIP...BUT FOR 
NOW GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AFTER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH VFR 
CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME 
NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. 
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL 
SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN CLOUDS DOWN TO A MID CLOUD CEILING WITH 
EASTERLY WINDS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET AT THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS EARLY 
THURSDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT POSE ANY 
PROBLEMS TO AVIATION. OTHERWISE...IFR/RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY INTO 
EARLY FRIDAY. 

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 9 PM TUESDAY...SURGE SHOULD CONTINUE THRUOUT MUCH OF THE 
OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SCEC TO CONTINUE. AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IN THE 
WIND DIRECTION WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WILL PRODUCE 
SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN 5 FOOT SEAS WITH THE HIEST SEAS IN THE 
VICINITY OF FRYING PAN SHOALS...INTERSECTING 2 ZONES.   

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
S OF 3PM TUESDAY...
RATHER TUMULTUOUS WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION 
SHOULD BE EARLY WED AS SFC RIDGE GROWS NEAR BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO 
RETREAT TO THE NORTH SOON. FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AS THE HIGH RETREATS 
WED NIGHT BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS. 
REGARDLESS...THE INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL LIKELY GIVE RISE TO SMALL 
CRAFT ADVISORY AS GUSTS APPROACH 25KT. WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL 
BE LATE WED INTO THURSDAY AS GOMEX LOW MOVES RIGHT UP THE COAST. 
HIGH WINDS AND SEAS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MAKE FOR UGLY CONDITIONS 
WITH SOLID SCA...NOT TO MENTION REDUCED VSBY IN MODERATE TO AT TIMES 
HEAVY RAIN. 

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRONT WILL STALL E OF THE WATERS ON FRI 
BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA SAT OR SUN AS SURFACE WAVE/LOW 
MOVES NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 
VARIOUS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...SO THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF 
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE 
GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 25 KT AT SOME 
POINT. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD WITH LOW WILL 
PASSING E OF THE WATERS. 


&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL