000 FXUS62 KILM 160503 AAA AFDILM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO MARINE SHORT AND LONG TERM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC 1139 PM EST TUE JAN 15 2008 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND UP THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... AS OF 9 PM TUESDAY...NW-N SURGE AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL COUNTIES AT THE MOMENT. INLAND...SFC BASED INVERSION TAKING SHAPE ALLOWING WINDS TO DECOUPLE. WITH RAD COOLING CONDITIONS...WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS DROP PRETTY QUICKLY WITH PRESCRIBED LOWS ON TARGET. SFC PG WILL RELAX ACROSS THE REMAINING COASTAL LOCATIONS AFTER 06Z...ALLOWING WIND SPEEDS TO DROP BELOW 5 MPH AND POSSIBLY GO CALM. THIS CULD ALSO LEAD TO MIN TEMPS BOTTOMING OUT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH CURRENT VALUES. CI SHIELD TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AFFECTING THE AREA WITH MAINLY THIN RATHER THAN OPAQUE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 3PM TUESDAY...NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED WITH RESPECT TO THE FCST FOR THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. UNFORTUNATELY SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING P-TYPE ISSUES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP ALSO REMAINS. EXTREMELY DRY AIR (DP OF -40C AT 700MB 00Z THURSDAY) WILL BE THE BIG PLAYER IN CREATING BOUNDARY LAYER WETBULB VALUES THAT ARE LIKELY BEING POORLY HANDLED BY GUIDANCE, WHICH STILL LARGELY DOUBTS THERE ARE ANY P-TYPE ISSUES. FOR THE MOST PART CONTINUITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED....SLOWLY BRINGING JUST RAIN INTO SRNMOST ZONES BY ABOUT 06Z (WHERE TEMPS WILL BE JUST WARM ENOUGH). RAIN OVERSPREADS THE AREA BY 09Z AND AREAS ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A RAIN-SNOW MIX THAT WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO A RAIN/SLEET MIX AS WARM AIR ALOFT INCREASES. NO ACCUMS OF ANYTHING FROZEN IS EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. BY 12Z PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL RAIN. BIG QUESTION IS...HOW MUCH OF IT DO WE SEE. WRF HAS VERY HIGH AMOUNTS THAT EXTEND CLEAR ACROSS THE STATE BUT ALSO SEEM TO STEM FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AS LOW LEVEL PV INCREASES QUITE A BIT WITH THE LOW. GENERALLY EXPECT ABOUT A HALF INCH OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL...POSSIBLY WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSE TO THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...COLD FRONT STALLED E OF THE AREA ON FRI WILL SHIFT BACK W NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST SAT OR SUN AS WAVE IN THE NRN GOMEX DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND TRACKS ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA AND THEN MOVES NE ALONG THE E COAST OF THE US. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE SLOWER ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTIONS. LEANING IN FAVOR OF SLOWER SOLUTION...WHICH THE GFS IS SLOWLY TRENDING TO. THE MAIN REASON FOR THE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS IS HOW THE GUIDANCE IS HANDLING THE UPPER TROF THAT DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL US AND HELPS PUSH THE SURFACE FEATURE ENE. ONCE THE SURFACE WAVE/LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER TROF WILL CROSS THE AREA...BRINING ANOTHER ARCTIC AIR MASS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A WEAK COASTAL TROF TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE RETURN FLOW ON TUESDAY. COASTAL TROF MAY RESULT IN SOME PRECIP...BUT FOR NOW GOING WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ON TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... ALL THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR AFTER THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLOWLY LOWER AND THICKEN CLOUDS DOWN TO A MID CLOUD CEILING WITH EASTERLY WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET AT THE FLO/LBT TERMINALS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD NOT POSE ANY PROBLEMS TO AVIATION. OTHERWISE...IFR/RAIN LIKELY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 9 PM TUESDAY...SURGE SHOULD CONTINUE THRUOUT MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SCEC TO CONTINUE. AN OFFSHORE TRAJECTORY IN THE WIND DIRECTION WITH WIND SPEEDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE WILL PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD WIND DRIVEN 5 FOOT SEAS WITH THE HIEST SEAS IN THE VICINITY OF FRYING PAN SHOALS...INTERSECTING 2 ZONES. SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... S OF 3PM TUESDAY... RATHER TUMULTUOUS WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PD. THE EXCEPTION SHOULD BE EARLY WED AS SFC RIDGE GROWS NEAR BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT TO THE NORTH SOON. FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AS THE HIGH RETREATS WED NIGHT BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS. REGARDLESS...THE INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL LIKELY GIVE RISE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AS GUSTS APPROACH 25KT. WORST OF THE CONDITIONS WILL BE LATE WED INTO THURSDAY AS GOMEX LOW MOVES RIGHT UP THE COAST. HIGH WINDS AND SEAS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL MAKE FOR UGLY CONDITIONS WITH SOLID SCA...NOT TO MENTION REDUCED VSBY IN MODERATE TO AT TIMES HEAVY RAIN. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...FRONT WILL STALL E OF THE WATERS ON FRI BEFORE MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA SAT OR SUN AS SURFACE WAVE/LOW MOVES NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE VARIOUS LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...SO THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. IT DOES LOOK LIKE GRADIENT WILL BECOME PINCHED WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 25 KT AT SOME POINT. FLOW WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THRU THE PERIOD WITH LOW WILL PASSING E OF THE WATERS. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...NONE. NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBB NEAR TERM...DCH SHORT TERM...MBB LONG TERM...III AVIATION...DL