000 
FXUS63 KFGF 290926
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
326 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST THINKING TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXITING QUICKLY NORTHEAST...BACKEDGE
OF THE THICKER 850 MB MOISTURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY WITH 850 MB MOISTURE STILL OVER
MOST OF MINNESOTA THIS AFTN WHILE DRYING OCCURS IN THE 900-850 MB
LAYER OVER ERN ND AND RED RIVER VALLEY.  SOME BREAKS OCCURRED FROM
BRANDON TO DVL TO JAMESTOWN LATE FRI AFTN AND SOME CLEARING MAY
OCCUR AGAIN TODAY OVER ERN ND INTO THE THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS
SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND MIXING IN THE SUB 900 MB LAYER IS A BIT
BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. STILL GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND FACT THAT WARM
ADV WILL BE OCCURING AT 850 MB NEVER SURE ABOUT CLEARING. OBS SHOW
SOME FLURRIES IN THE VALLEY INTO MN AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS MENTION
THIS MORNING. SOME FOG THAT FORMED IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER
CLEARING HAS DISSIPATED WITH CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN BUT WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING TIL 15Z FOR MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY
FOR ANY RESIDUAL FOG PATCHES. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...WARMING IS
MOSTLY ALOFT...SO MAINTAINED PRETTY MUCH CONSISTENCY AND EXPECT
HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS. MOS VALUES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES TOO COOL...EXCEPT FOR FWC WHICH HAS BEEN TOO WARM.

MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY 850 MB WARM ADV. PER ISENTROPIC SURFACES SOME LIFT
TONIGHT...ESP NW MN BUT SATURATION IS PRETTY WEAK IN THE 800-750
MB LAYER IN MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION IS FAR NW MN AFTER 06Z. FOR THIS
REASON REMOVED LOW POPS FOR -SN FOR ALL BUT FAR NW MN TONIGHT.
PREV FCST LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO COLD
DUE TO SOUTH WIND NR 10 KTS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...SO DID UP
LOWS SOME.  

STRONG STORM IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE PAC NW
COAST SUNDAY PUMPING UP A 500 MB RIDGE INTO WRN CANADA AND
DEVELOPING A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING
AN 500 MB UPPER LOW NR 60 DEG NORTH SOUTHWARD INTO MN MON NIGHT
ALONG WITH A STRONG BUT QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT SNOW
AND FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMP RECOVER MONDAY NOT VERY MUCH AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO
-18C DURING THE DAY.  

.LONG TERM...
DID LOWER HIGHS SOME TUESDAY PER MEX GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED RECOVER
AS COLDEST OF AIR OVERHEAD AND SNOWPACK IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVERHEAD TUES NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER TEMPS BUT JUST HOW
COLD IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. HIGH MOVES EAST ON WED
WITH WARM ADV OCCURRING. 00Z GFS IS FASTER THAN PREV RUNS IN
SHOVING WARMER AIR EASTWARD...WHILE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. KEPT
COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESADY PER PREV FCST BLO 00Z MEX GUIDANCE. 

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH SOME -SN IN SPOTS. QUESTION TODAY IS
CLEARING AND IF AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. BEST CHC OF ANY CLEARING
WOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE VALLEY IN BETTER MIXING BUT REALLY
UNSURE AT THIS POINT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PER PERSISTENCE IN
KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND TIL GET A BETTER HANDLE.  

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
RIDDLE