000 FXUS63 KFGF 290926 AFDFGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND 326 AM CST SAT DEC 29 2007 .SHORT TERM... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST THINKING TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES EXITING QUICKLY NORTHEAST...BACKEDGE OF THE THICKER 850 MB MOISTURE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND IS PROGGED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY WITH 850 MB MOISTURE STILL OVER MOST OF MINNESOTA THIS AFTN WHILE DRYING OCCURS IN THE 900-850 MB LAYER OVER ERN ND AND RED RIVER VALLEY. SOME BREAKS OCCURRED FROM BRANDON TO DVL TO JAMESTOWN LATE FRI AFTN AND SOME CLEARING MAY OCCUR AGAIN TODAY OVER ERN ND INTO THE THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND MIXING IN THE SUB 900 MB LAYER IS A BIT BETTER THAN ON FRIDAY. STILL GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND FACT THAT WARM ADV WILL BE OCCURING AT 850 MB NEVER SURE ABOUT CLEARING. OBS SHOW SOME FLURRIES IN THE VALLEY INTO MN AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS MENTION THIS MORNING. SOME FOG THAT FORMED IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY UNDER CLEARING HAS DISSIPATED WITH CLOUDS MOVING BACK IN BUT WILL MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING TIL 15Z FOR MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY FOR ANY RESIDUAL FOG PATCHES. AS FOR TEMPS TODAY...WARMING IS MOSTLY ALOFT...SO MAINTAINED PRETTY MUCH CONSISTENCY AND EXPECT HIGHS SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS. MOS VALUES HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...EXCEPT FOR FWC WHICH HAS BEEN TOO WARM. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY 850 MB WARM ADV. PER ISENTROPIC SURFACES SOME LIFT TONIGHT...ESP NW MN BUT SATURATION IS PRETTY WEAK IN THE 800-750 MB LAYER IN MOST AREAS. EXCEPTION IS FAR NW MN AFTER 06Z. FOR THIS REASON REMOVED LOW POPS FOR -SN FOR ALL BUT FAR NW MN TONIGHT. PREV FCST LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO COLD DUE TO SOUTH WIND NR 10 KTS AND EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...SO DID UP LOWS SOME. STRONG STORM IN THE PACIFIC OCEAN WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE PAC NW COAST SUNDAY PUMPING UP A 500 MB RIDGE INTO WRN CANADA AND DEVELOPING A TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING AN 500 MB UPPER LOW NR 60 DEG NORTH SOUTHWARD INTO MN MON NIGHT ALONG WITH A STRONG BUT QUICK SHOT OF COLD AIR. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. TEMP RECOVER MONDAY NOT VERY MUCH AS 850 MB TEMPS FALL TO -18C DURING THE DAY. .LONG TERM... DID LOWER HIGHS SOME TUESDAY PER MEX GUIDANCE WITH LIMITED RECOVER AS COLDEST OF AIR OVERHEAD AND SNOWPACK IN PLACE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVERHEAD TUES NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER TEMPS BUT JUST HOW COLD IS IN QUESTION DEPENDING ON SKY COVER. HIGH MOVES EAST ON WED WITH WARM ADV OCCURRING. 00Z GFS IS FASTER THAN PREV RUNS IN SHOVING WARMER AIR EASTWARD...WHILE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. KEPT COOLER READINGS ON WEDNESADY PER PREV FCST BLO 00Z MEX GUIDANCE. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH SOME -SN IN SPOTS. QUESTION TODAY IS CLEARING AND IF AND WHERE IT WILL OCCUR. BEST CHC OF ANY CLEARING WOULD BE JUST WEST OF THE VALLEY IN BETTER MIXING BUT REALLY UNSURE AT THIS POINT SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PER PERSISTENCE IN KEEPING CLOUDS AROUND TIL GET A BETTER HANDLE. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...NONE. MN...NONE. && $$ RIDDLE