000 
FXUS62 KMLB 111920
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005

.DISCUSSION...

OVERNIGHT...
LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW...GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS...WILL 
SHIFT BRUNT OF CONVECTION BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID 
EVENING. WEAKER FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST CWA 
SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO REMAIN INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL INDICATE 
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS COASTAL VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES...AND 
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. DRY LAYER ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO 
PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING AND 
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW MOTION.

FRI/SAT...
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN A WEAK W/SWRLY STEERING FLOW 
THROUGH THE H85-H50 LYR.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WELL DEFINED 
SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS WITH RESPECTABLE INLAND PROPAGATION.  
FURTHERMORE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE 
IN AIRMASS.  THE DRY AIR POCKET CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA 
SHOULD MODIFY BY FRI AS MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THE REST OF THE 
REGION INCREASES BOTH NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD...WILL INCREASE POPS 
AREAWIDE BY 10%. 

HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW 
WILL BE AOB 10KTS...SO EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A W/SWLRY FLOW...IT 
IS UNCERTAIN THAT THE FLOW WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO PUSH THE 
STORMS BACK TO THE COAST.  WILL CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER 
THE INTERIOR AND N COAST BOTH DAYS.   

SUN-THU...
SOME MID/UPR LVL DRYING IS ANTICPATED OVER THE SERN U.S.IN RESPONSE 
TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE.  N/NWRLY FLOW AROUND 
HER FRONT SIDE IS EXPECTED TO TAP THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER 
THE SE U.S.  WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING PRECIP COVERAGE WOULD 
BE LOWER.  HOWEVER...LACK OF CERTAINTY WITH THE CENTER/FCST TRACK AS 
EXPRESSED BY THE NHC LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBLY FOR IRENE TO RECURVE 
BEFORE SHE COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO DRAW THE DRIER AIR INTO FL.  GIVEN 
THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...MAKING ANY MAJOR OR WIDESCALE CHANGES TO 
THE PREVIOUS FCST UNWISE. 

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...LCL WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK. 
GENERAL SE/SWRLY FLOW AOB 10KT.  PRIMARY IMPACT FROM DISTANT 
TROPICAL STORM IRENE WILL LONG PD SWELLS PROPAGATING INTO THE CWA 
LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING.  CONSIDERING THE CURRENT STRENGTH 
AND SIZE OF IRENE...AM QUITE SKEPTICAL OF HER ABILITY TO GENERATE 
ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A 4-5FT SWELL OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL INDICATE 
THIS IN THE TEXT BODY. 

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR 
LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL TAF SITES...FAVORING KDAB AND KMLB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  76  91 /  30  50  20  40 
MCO  76  93  76  93 /  20  50  20  50 
MLB  76  91  76  90 /  30  40  20  40 
VRB  75  90  75  90 /  20  40  20  40 

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SPRATT
LONG TERM....BRAGAW