000 FXUS62 KMLB 111920 AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 320 PM EDT THU AUG 11 2005 .DISCUSSION... OVERNIGHT... LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW...GENERALLY 5-10 KNOTS...WILL SHIFT BRUNT OF CONVECTION BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST THROUGH MID EVENING. WEAKER FLOW NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTHERNMOST CWA SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVITY TO REMAIN INLAND FROM THE COAST. WILL INDICATE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS COASTAL VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTIES...AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. DRY LAYER ALOFT WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE STORMS TO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...AS WELL AS FREQUENT CG LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN DUE TO SLOW MOTION. FRI/SAT... ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN A WEAK W/SWRLY STEERING FLOW THROUGH THE H85-H50 LYR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A WELL DEFINED SEABREEZE BOTH DAYS WITH RESPECTABLE INLAND PROPAGATION. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...THERE WILL BE NO CHANGE IN AIRMASS. THE DRY AIR POCKET CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PENINSULA SHOULD MODIFY BY FRI AS MOISTURE PROFILE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION INCREASES BOTH NORTHWARD AND SOUTHWARD...WILL INCREASE POPS AREAWIDE BY 10%. HOWEVER...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...THE DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL BE AOB 10KTS...SO EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A W/SWLRY FLOW...IT IS UNCERTAIN THAT THE FLOW WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO PUSH THE STORMS BACK TO THE COAST. WILL CONCENTRATE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND N COAST BOTH DAYS. SUN-THU... SOME MID/UPR LVL DRYING IS ANTICPATED OVER THE SERN U.S.IN RESPONSE TO THE FUTURE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE. N/NWRLY FLOW AROUND HER FRONT SIDE IS EXPECTED TO TAP THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER THE SE U.S. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT...RESULTING PRECIP COVERAGE WOULD BE LOWER. HOWEVER...LACK OF CERTAINTY WITH THE CENTER/FCST TRACK AS EXPRESSED BY THE NHC LEAVES OPEN THE POSSIBLY FOR IRENE TO RECURVE BEFORE SHE COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO DRAW THE DRIER AIR INTO FL. GIVEN THIS LEVEL OF UNCERTAINTY...MAKING ANY MAJOR OR WIDESCALE CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FCST UNWISE. && .MARINE... WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD...LCL WIND FIELD WILL REMAIN WEAK. GENERAL SE/SWRLY FLOW AOB 10KT. PRIMARY IMPACT FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORM IRENE WILL LONG PD SWELLS PROPAGATING INTO THE CWA LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. CONSIDERING THE CURRENT STRENGTH AND SIZE OF IRENE...AM QUITE SKEPTICAL OF HER ABILITY TO GENERATE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN A 4-5FT SWELL OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL INDICATE THIS IN THE TEXT BODY. && .AVIATION... SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING WILL RESULT IN MVFR/IFR LIKELIHOOD FOR ALL TAF SITES...FAVORING KDAB AND KMLB. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 91 76 91 / 30 50 20 40 MCO 76 93 76 93 / 20 50 20 50 MLB 76 91 76 90 / 30 40 20 40 VRB 75 90 75 90 / 20 40 20 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPRATT LONG TERM....BRAGAW