000 
FXUS64 KMAF 200719
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
218 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

.SHORT TERM...
NOT PLANNING MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TODAY. THE MID LEVEL
SHEAR AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING
THE MID LEVEL CAP TO HOLD FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER 
WITH LITTLE COOLING ALOFT ANTICIPATED TODAY. IN ADDITION THE FLOW ALOFT 
WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD FIRE ACROSS THE NEW 
MEXICO MOUNTAINS TO TRANSLATE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO 
CARRY 10-20 POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS 
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND THE STOCKTON PLATEAU DUE TO 
OROGRAPHICS AND REMNANTS OF SHEAR AXIS. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE MOVING 
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MAY ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS 
PECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. REDUCED POPS TO ISOLATED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EMILY STILL DISTANT. TWEAKED
TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...QPF GRIDS. ETA MOS GUIDANCE WINDS LOOKED
MOST REASONABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...
THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHAT EFFECTS...IF ANY...HRCN EMILY WILL HAVE
ON THE REGIONS WEATHER.  NHC FORECASTS KEEP THE DECAYING HURRICANE WELL
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL UPTICK IN BOTH
POP AND QPF FORECASTS OVER WHAT WE HAVE GOING AT PRESENT. 

OTHERWISE...QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES.  THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW...
THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.  THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL TRANSIT THE NORTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO INDUCE SUFFICIENT SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN ITS WAKE TO
DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE EXTENDED.  IT IS QUITE HARD
TO PINPOINT FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT FAR OUT.  FOR NOW WE
WILL KEEP THE POP AND QPF FORECAST CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY.

OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DATABASE WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.  WE DID ADJUST
SKY GRIDS TO MESH WITH THE LATEST GFS RH PROGS...OTEHRWISE WE MADE MINOR
NUDGES TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              97  74  97  74 /   0   0   0  10 
CARLSBAD NM                99  70  99  71 /  10   0  10  10 
DRYDEN TX                  93  74  92  74 /  20  10  20  10 
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  73  95  70 /  10  10  10  10 
GUADALUPE PASS TX          91  67  90  66 /  10   0  20  10 
HOBBS NM                   99  72  98  72 /   0   0  10  10 
MARFA TX                   90  61  86  61 /  20  10  20  10 
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  73  96  73 /   0   0  10  10 
ODESSA TX                  96  73  96  72 /   0   0  10  10 
WINK TX                   102  75 100  74 /  10   0  10  10 

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/70