000 FXUS64 KMAF 200719 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 218 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005 .SHORT TERM... NOT PLANNING MUCH CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST TODAY. THE MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECTING THE MID LEVEL CAP TO HOLD FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE PECOS RIVER WITH LITTLE COOLING ALOFT ANTICIPATED TODAY. IN ADDITION THE FLOW ALOFT WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR ANY CONVECTION THAT WOULD FIRE ACROSS THE NEW MEXICO MOUNTAINS TO TRANSLATE INTO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY 10-20 POPS THIS AFTERNOON FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST TEXAS AND THE STOCKTON PLATEAU DUE TO OROGRAPHICS AND REMNANTS OF SHEAR AXIS. IN ADDITION A SHORTWAVE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS MAY ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS THE LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. REDUCED POPS TO ISOLATED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING AND EMILY STILL DISTANT. TWEAKED TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...QPF GRIDS. ETA MOS GUIDANCE WINDS LOOKED MOST REASONABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. .LONG TERM... THE BIG QUESTION TODAY IS WHAT EFFECTS...IF ANY...HRCN EMILY WILL HAVE ON THE REGIONS WEATHER. NHC FORECASTS KEEP THE DECAYING HURRICANE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWFA THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND WHILE THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT EXPECT A SUBSTANTIAL UPTICK IN BOTH POP AND QPF FORECASTS OVER WHAT WE HAVE GOING AT PRESENT. OTHERWISE...QUIESCENT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE GREAT BASIN EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE REGION IN DEEP LAYER EASTERLY FLOW... THUS TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST OPERATIONAL GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSIT THE NORTHERN STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INDUCE SUFFICIENT SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN ITS WAKE TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE EXTENDED. IT IS QUITE HARD TO PINPOINT FRONTAL PASSAGES THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT FAR OUT. FOR NOW WE WILL KEEP THE POP AND QPF FORECAST CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY. OVERALL THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DATABASE WAS IN GOOD SHAPE. WE DID ADJUST SKY GRIDS TO MESH WITH THE LATEST GFS RH PROGS...OTEHRWISE WE MADE MINOR NUDGES TOWARD A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 97 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 10 CARLSBAD NM 99 70 99 71 / 10 0 10 10 DRYDEN TX 93 74 92 74 / 20 10 20 10 FORT STOCKTON TX 95 73 95 70 / 10 10 10 10 GUADALUPE PASS TX 91 67 90 66 / 10 0 20 10 HOBBS NM 99 72 98 72 / 0 0 10 10 MARFA TX 90 61 86 61 / 20 10 20 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 96 73 96 73 / 0 0 10 10 ODESSA TX 96 73 96 72 / 0 0 10 10 WINK TX 102 75 100 74 / 10 0 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 12/70