000 
FXUS61 KBGM 091940
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
240 PM EST WED MAR 9 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS THE FLOW 
SHIFTS TO ABOUT 290 DEGREES. VIS SAT IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING 
GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION SETTING UP THIS AFTN. A WELL ALIGNED FLOW 
TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH DELTA T AND LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL BRING 
MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT TO THE AREA FROM ONONDAGA THROUGH 
MADISON, S. ONEIDA COUNTIES AND CLIPPING NORTHERN AREAS OF OTSEGO 
COUNTY AS WELL. THE CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LOOK 
TO BE ON TARGET AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF TIME THE BAND WILL BE IN THE 
AREA ALONG WITH HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS, BELIEVE FORECAST AMOUNT 
ON THE ORDER OF 8-12 INCHES WILL SUFFICE AND CAN BE TWEAKED IF 
NECESSARY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, THE LAKE ERIE BAND WILL LIKELY 
ARC INTO CENTRAL TIER COUNTIES, THRU ELM, INTO NORTHERN PA TONIGHT. 
WILL KEEP CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA.

SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY, THE BAND SHIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN 
ONEIDA COUNTY FOR A PERIOD IN THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT IN THE 
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SWLY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING LOW 
PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THE BAND WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED IN THE COUNTY 
AND DAYTIME ISSUES, PLAN ON ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY FOR 
NORTHERN ONEIDA THURSDAY MORNING. CLD COVER WILL BE TOUGH CALL TONIGHT 
THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF 
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT BAND TO THE NORTH.

ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRT WV APRCHS FOR THU NGT AND FRIDAY. KEPT CHC OF 
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. ETA AND GFS 
AGREE ON BRINING SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT 
ETA A BIT STRONGER WITH THE LOW INITIALLY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET 
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, SO WILL INCREASE POPS 
TO LOW LIKELY AND INCLUDE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE GRIDS.  

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI NITE - WEDNESDAY)...
NAO FCST TO REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE DURG THIS PERIOD...BUT SOME 
BREAKDOWN OF +PNA POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RESULT 
WILL KEEP THE HIGH AMPL TROF/POLAR VORTEX IN PLACE WITH SUB NORMAL 
TEMPS AND ACTIVE WX THRU MONDAY WITH SOME MODERATION CLOSER TO 
NORMAL MIDWEEK. KEEPING OUR EYES CLOSELY FOCUSED ON POTNL COASTAL 
LOW DVLPG AT START OF THIS FCST FOR FRI NITE-SAT. SVRL MODELS 
AGREEING ON AN OUT TO SEA DEEPENING...WHILE ECMWF HOLDS A TRACK NEAR 
SHORE. WITH JET ENERGY DIGGING DEEP INTO ERN TROF...ECMWF MAY BE 
MISHANDLING THE PRIMARY LOW...HWVR...NEED TO RESPECT IT/S SOLUTION 
AS OTHER MDLS FREQUENTLY TREND WEST TWD ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS ONE 
WILL PROBABLY TURN OUT TO BE ANOTHER NEW ENG STORM...BUT OF COURSE 
WE/LL KEEP CHC SNOW FOR FRI NITE-SAT AND MAKE MENTION OF HVY SNOW 
POTENTIAL IN HWO. LOW FCST TO MOVE TO MARITIMES AND LINGER...THUS 
COLD NWLY FLOW AND LES THEN DOMINATES THE FCST WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS 
ACROSS UPSTATE...AND FLURRIES FOR NEPA...WEAKENING BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (09/18Z - 10/18Z)...
LAKE EFFECT MACHINE UNDERWAY...THUS EXPECT VARIABLE FLIGHT 
CONDITIONS AROUND OUR TERMINALS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SHOW MULTI BAND 
LES TO TRANSFORM INTO A 280-290 DEGREE SYR-UCA SINGLE BAND TONIGHT 
WITH A PREDOMINANCE OF IFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS IN MDT-HVY SNOW. 
ELSEWHERE...BKN VFR OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DIURNALLY BCM SCT 
AFT 23Z. A SECOND LES BAND MAY EXTEND FROM LK ERIE INTO THE ELM-AVP 
AERODROMES DURING THE LATE EVE-EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH OCNL 
RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR CIG/VSBY. SNOW BANDS XPCTD TO LIFT NORTH BY END 
OF THIS FCST PERIOD WITH VFR LAST 6 HRS.
 
&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT NYZ018-036-037.
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT NYZ046.
      LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THURSDAY NYZ009.
.PA...NONE.

$$