000 FXUS61 KBGM 091940 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 240 PM EST WED MAR 9 2005 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY)... LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS STARTING TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO ABOUT 290 DEGREES. VIS SAT IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWING GEORGIAN BAY CONNECTION SETTING UP THIS AFTN. A WELL ALIGNED FLOW TONIGHT ALONG WITH HIGH DELTA T AND LAKE INDUCED CAPE WILL BRING MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT TO THE AREA FROM ONONDAGA THROUGH MADISON, S. ONEIDA COUNTIES AND CLIPPING NORTHERN AREAS OF OTSEGO COUNTY AS WELL. THE CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA LOOK TO BE ON TARGET AND GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF TIME THE BAND WILL BE IN THE AREA ALONG WITH HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS, BELIEVE FORECAST AMOUNT ON THE ORDER OF 8-12 INCHES WILL SUFFICE AND CAN BE TWEAKED IF NECESSARY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, THE LAKE ERIE BAND WILL LIKELY ARC INTO CENTRAL TIER COUNTIES, THRU ELM, INTO NORTHERN PA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THIS AREA. SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY, THE BAND SHIFTS NORTH INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY FOR A PERIOD IN THE MORNING BEFORE LIFTING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SWLY AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. SINCE THE BAND WILL NOT BE LONG LIVED IN THE COUNTY AND DAYTIME ISSUES, PLAN ON ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA THURSDAY MORNING. CLD COVER WILL BE TOUGH CALL TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WILL GENERALLY GO WITH PTCLDY SKIES OUTSIDE OF MAJOR LAKE EFFECT BAND TO THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLIPPER SHRT WV APRCHS FOR THU NGT AND FRIDAY. KEPT CHC OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. ETA AND GFS AGREE ON BRINING SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST, BUT ETA A BIT STRONGER WITH THE LOW INITIALLY. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY, SO WILL INCREASE POPS TO LOW LIKELY AND INCLUDE SOME LIGHT ACCUMS IN THE GRIDS. && .LONG TERM (FRI NITE - WEDNESDAY)... NAO FCST TO REMAIN STRONGLY NEGATIVE DURG THIS PERIOD...BUT SOME BREAKDOWN OF +PNA POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RESULT WILL KEEP THE HIGH AMPL TROF/POLAR VORTEX IN PLACE WITH SUB NORMAL TEMPS AND ACTIVE WX THRU MONDAY WITH SOME MODERATION CLOSER TO NORMAL MIDWEEK. KEEPING OUR EYES CLOSELY FOCUSED ON POTNL COASTAL LOW DVLPG AT START OF THIS FCST FOR FRI NITE-SAT. SVRL MODELS AGREEING ON AN OUT TO SEA DEEPENING...WHILE ECMWF HOLDS A TRACK NEAR SHORE. WITH JET ENERGY DIGGING DEEP INTO ERN TROF...ECMWF MAY BE MISHANDLING THE PRIMARY LOW...HWVR...NEED TO RESPECT IT/S SOLUTION AS OTHER MDLS FREQUENTLY TREND WEST TWD ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THIS ONE WILL PROBABLY TURN OUT TO BE ANOTHER NEW ENG STORM...BUT OF COURSE WE/LL KEEP CHC SNOW FOR FRI NITE-SAT AND MAKE MENTION OF HVY SNOW POTENTIAL IN HWO. LOW FCST TO MOVE TO MARITIMES AND LINGER...THUS COLD NWLY FLOW AND LES THEN DOMINATES THE FCST WITH SCT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS UPSTATE...AND FLURRIES FOR NEPA...WEAKENING BY WEDNESDAY. && .AVIATION (09/18Z - 10/18Z)... LAKE EFFECT MACHINE UNDERWAY...THUS EXPECT VARIABLE FLIGHT CONDITIONS AROUND OUR TERMINALS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SHOW MULTI BAND LES TO TRANSFORM INTO A 280-290 DEGREE SYR-UCA SINGLE BAND TONIGHT WITH A PREDOMINANCE OF IFR VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS IN MDT-HVY SNOW. ELSEWHERE...BKN VFR OCNL MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DIURNALLY BCM SCT AFT 23Z. A SECOND LES BAND MAY EXTEND FROM LK ERIE INTO THE ELM-AVP AERODROMES DURING THE LATE EVE-EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH OCNL RESTRICTIONS TO MVFR CIG/VSBY. SNOW BANDS XPCTD TO LIFT NORTH BY END OF THIS FCST PERIOD WITH VFR LAST 6 HRS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING TONIGHT NYZ018-036-037. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY TONIGHT NYZ046. LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY THURSDAY NYZ009. .PA...NONE. $$