000 
FXUS63 KEAX 130844 CCA
AFDEAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ADVISORY CODES AT BOTTOM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
335 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...

TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT ARE THE 
MAIN CHALLENGES THIS MORNING.

JUST MISSED OUT ON CONVECTION TONIGHT...STORMS RAN INTO A WALL AS 
THEY GOT INTO NORTHERN MO. NICE LEFTOVER ANVIL WILL BE SHIFTING OUT 
OF HERE THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPERATURES AT ALL. 
ALSO LEFT BEHIND IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO.  MID LEVEL 
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...SO THE OUTFLOW 
BOUNDARY IS NOT A CONCERN FOR THE MORNING.  HOWEVER...THE FRONT 
PROGGED TO GO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH 
FOR.  CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS WEAK...BUT AS THE FRONT GETS INTO 
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO THE CAP IS WEAKER.  WITH HIGH 
INSTABILITIES AND AN SPC MODERATE RISK...HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS 
IN NORTHEAST CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  IF STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL 
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND EXIT JUST AS FAST.  THERE SHOULD BE A 
LULL IN THE EVENING...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN 
GENERATING STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS TRACK ALONG THE 
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AND WORK BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE CWA.  HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MAINLY AFTER 
MIDNIGHT.  THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A BACKDOOR FRONT 
REMAINS NEARBY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES 
ROTATING THROUGH.  HAVE NOT ALTERED POPS MUCH...AS GOING FORECAST 
HAS AS GOOD A HANDLE ON IT AS CAN BE EXPECTED.

DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TODAY.  MAY BE ABLE TO MIX 
DOWN A DEGREE LESS HERE AND THERE...BUT HEAT INDICES WILL BE HIGH 
AGAIN TODAY. KMCI INDEX GOT AS HIGH AS 108 YESTERDAY...BUT WAS THE 
ONLY SITE TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.  SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY 
ARE USUALLY GOOD FOR US TO WARM UP...SO HAVE KEPT THE UPPER 90S IN 
THE WESTERN COUNTIES.  HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EXPECTED... 
HAVE LOWERED THE EASTERN CWA FROM UPPER TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS TODAY.  
THIS IS 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A 
HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN TODAY...WILL GO FROM THE KANSAS CITY METRO NORTH 
TO KSTJ...AND SPREAD EAST A FEW MORE ROWS OF COUNTIES.  WITH THE 
BOUNDARY AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THERMAL RIDGE GETS 
PUSHED WEST...SO THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST TERRIBLY HOT DAY THIS 
WEEK.

27

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

1003 PM MON...
DID A QUICK UPDATED TO NORTHERN COUNTIES TO HANDLE STORMS COMING 
SOUTH OUT OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING INCREASING 
INSTABILITY AXIS COMING DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO 
NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND CURRENT TRACK OF STORM NEAR OMAHA WOULD 
HAVE IT CROSSING BORDER INTO MISSOURI AFTER 11 PM. RUC SHOWS CAP IS 
STRENGTHENING INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO 
MAY FORCE STORMS FURTHER EAST...SO WILL ADD POPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL 
MISSOURI FOR LATER TONIGHT.

PC


344 PM MON...
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND 
TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPS FROM 20C TO 24C PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH 700MB 
TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 12C. HAVE NOT REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA 
TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET IT OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY 
DRIER AIR MAY MIX DOWN TOMORROW...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. 
OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY 
AFTERNOON.

STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY TURN INTO AN MCS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST 
ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR 
STORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE 
FORECAST AREA.

OTHERWISE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVERGENCE IS NOT GREAT ALONG THE 
FRONT AND CAP MAY KEEP STORMS MAY FIRING DURING THE DAY...SO HAVE 
KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 
FOR A LONGER PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH ETA 
AND GFS PROG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT 
TIME. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA 
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN WITH CAP 
PUSHED BACK WEST.

NRR

FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A NORTHWEST 
FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MODERATE OUR 
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST...BUT BY HOW MUCH IS 
THE QUESTION. FOR SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE 
EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A 
COOL FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO THIS 
WEEKENDS FRONT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SELF 
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT THE ECMWF HAS THE SUPPORT OF 
THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS AND IS PREFERRED. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE 
PHASING THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE POLAR VORTEX TO THE NORTH OF HUDSON 
BAY...WHICH THEN ALLOWS TOO MUCH COOL AIR TO PUSH SOUTH. THE UP SHOT 
OF THIS IS THAT WHILE I STILL EXPECT A COOL FRONT SATURDAY 
NIGHT...WHICH PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR OUR CHANCE POPS SATURDAY 
DAY/NIGHT...THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT. 
SO...WHILE I MODERATED TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND...I KEPT THEM ABOVE 
THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM THE GFS.

CUTTER

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 100 PM CDT TUESDAY UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY
FOR ZONES KSZ025...KSZ057...KSZ102>105.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 100 PM CDT TUESDAY UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY
FOR ZONES MOZ011>014...MOZ020>023...MOZ028>031...MOZ037>038...MOZ043.


$$

WFO EAX