000 FXUS63 KEAX 130844 CCA AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED ADVISORY CODES AT BOTTOM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 335 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 .DISCUSSION... TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM AND PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES THIS MORNING. JUST MISSED OUT ON CONVECTION TONIGHT...STORMS RAN INTO A WALL AS THEY GOT INTO NORTHERN MO. NICE LEFTOVER ANVIL WILL BE SHIFTING OUT OF HERE THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD NOT AFFECT TEMPERATURES AT ALL. ALSO LEFT BEHIND IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN MO. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT...SO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS NOT A CONCERN FOR THE MORNING. HOWEVER...THE FRONT PROGGED TO GO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR. CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS WEAK...BUT AS THE FRONT GETS INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MO THE CAP IS WEAKER. WITH HIGH INSTABILITIES AND AN SPC MODERATE RISK...HAVE INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS IN NORTHEAST CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS FIRE...THEY WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...AND EXIT JUST AS FAST. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE EVENING...BUT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THESE STORMS TRACK ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT...AND WORK BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWA. HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...A BACKDOOR FRONT REMAINS NEARBY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ROTATING THROUGH. HAVE NOT ALTERED POPS MUCH...AS GOING FORECAST HAS AS GOOD A HANDLE ON IT AS CAN BE EXPECTED. DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE MID 70S TODAY. MAY BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN A DEGREE LESS HERE AND THERE...BUT HEAT INDICES WILL BE HIGH AGAIN TODAY. KMCI INDEX GOT AS HIGH AS 108 YESTERDAY...BUT WAS THE ONLY SITE TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY ARE USUALLY GOOD FOR US TO WARM UP...SO HAVE KEPT THE UPPER 90S IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS EXPECTED... HAVE LOWERED THE EASTERN CWA FROM UPPER TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS TODAY. THIS IS 4-5 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN TODAY...WILL GO FROM THE KANSAS CITY METRO NORTH TO KSTJ...AND SPREAD EAST A FEW MORE ROWS OF COUNTIES. WITH THE BOUNDARY AROUND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...THERMAL RIDGE GETS PUSHED WEST...SO THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST TERRIBLY HOT DAY THIS WEEK. 27 && .PREV DISCUSSION... 1003 PM MON... DID A QUICK UPDATED TO NORTHERN COUNTIES TO HANDLE STORMS COMING SOUTH OUT OF IOWA AND NEBRASKA. LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING INCREASING INSTABILITY AXIS COMING DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND CURRENT TRACK OF STORM NEAR OMAHA WOULD HAVE IT CROSSING BORDER INTO MISSOURI AFTER 11 PM. RUC SHOWS CAP IS STRENGTHENING INTO NORTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO MAY FORCE STORMS FURTHER EAST...SO WILL ADD POPS INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI FOR LATER TONIGHT. PC 344 PM MON... RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 850MB TEMPS FROM 20C TO 24C PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH 700MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AROUND 12C. HAVE NOT REACHED ADVISORY CRITERIA TODAY AND DO NOT EXPECT TO MEET IT OVERNIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MIX DOWN TOMORROW...BUT IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH. OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY AGAIN FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA MAY TURN INTO AN MCS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE EDGE OF THE CAP. HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THE FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. CONVERGENCE IS NOT GREAT ALONG THE FRONT AND CAP MAY KEEP STORMS MAY FIRING DURING THE DAY...SO HAVE KEPT JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR TUESDAY. BUMPED POPS UP TO 30 FOR A LONGER PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BOTH ETA AND GFS PROG ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AT THAT TIME. LOOKS LIKE BOUNDARY MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN WITH CAP PUSHED BACK WEST. NRR FOR THE TAIL END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL MODERATE OUR TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE FORECAST...BUT BY HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION. FOR SATURDAY A SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO DIG INTO THE EAST COAST TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH RESPECT TO THIS WEEKENDS FRONT...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY SELF CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...BUT THE ECMWF HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE CANADIAN AND UKMET MODELS AND IS PREFERRED. THE GFS LOOKS TO BE PHASING THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE POLAR VORTEX TO THE NORTH OF HUDSON BAY...WHICH THEN ALLOWS TOO MUCH COOL AIR TO PUSH SOUTH. THE UP SHOT OF THIS IS THAT WHILE I STILL EXPECT A COOL FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH PROVIDES THE FOCUS FOR OUR CHANCE POPS SATURDAY DAY/NIGHT...THE COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL NOT BE AS GREAT. SO...WHILE I MODERATED TEMPS OVER THE WEEKEND...I KEPT THEM ABOVE THE GUIDANCE NUMBERS FROM THE GFS. CUTTER && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 100 PM CDT TUESDAY UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES KSZ025...KSZ057...KSZ102>105. MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 100 PM CDT TUESDAY UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES MOZ011>014...MOZ020>023...MOZ028>031...MOZ037>038...MOZ043. $$ WFO EAX