000 
FXUS64 KMAF 130814
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004

.SHORT TERM...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE ENDING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
AREA RESULTS IN MORE SEASONABLE READINGS.  ETA WARMING 850MB TEMPS 4
DEGREES CELSIUS TODAY SO MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID
90S WITH THE MERCURY PUSHING 100 ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND OVER 100
NEAR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE.  COULD HAVE GONE WARMER ON TEMPS TODAY
BUT DID NOT AS HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT LOW OVER THE BIG
BEND REGION WILL GET PULLED ACROSS THE REGION.  INHERITED LOW POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN FORECASTED
TRACK OF LOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST.  ETA/MESOETA DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER
THE WEST LATER TODAY WHILE AVN TENDS TO KEEP IT DRY. WILL LEAN
TOWARD ETA AND LEAVE POPS IN.  NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND
THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT.

.LONG TERM...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS REASONING...STILL LOOKS LIKE
A QUIET WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH
STABLE CONDITIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS
WOULD BE WEDNESDAY WHERE GFS 850 MILLIBAR LIFTED INDEXES ARE IN
THE 0 TO -1 RANGE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE NEAR THE
ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER.

BY THE WEEKEND THE NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND A COLD FRONT
WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY THE
PERMIAN BASIN. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE NORTH
DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT INSTABILITY NOT
IMPRESSIVE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL PROBABLY
SHUNT MAJOR SHORTWAVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WILL NOT MENTION
IN ZONES AT THIS TIME BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND 850 MILLIBAR LIFTED INDEXES STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE
IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND 850 MILLIBAR INDEXES
OF 0 TO -1 IN THE EXTREME WEST. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW SO FAR OUT
AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COULD TURN OUT ISOLATED DOWN THE ROAD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX             95  72  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               93  68  99  69 /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 91  73  96  69 /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          94  70  97  69 /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX         87  67  92  68 /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                  92  68  97  68 /   0  10   0   0
MARFA TX                  84  60  90  59 /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   93  71  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 93  71  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   98  74 102  71 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

&&

$$

74/12/72