000 FXUS64 KMAF 130814 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 256 AM CDT TUE JUL 13 2004 .SHORT TERM... BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE ENDING AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA RESULTS IN MORE SEASONABLE READINGS. ETA WARMING 850MB TEMPS 4 DEGREES CELSIUS TODAY SO MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 90S WITH THE MERCURY PUSHING 100 ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND OVER 100 NEAR PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE. COULD HAVE GONE WARMER ON TEMPS TODAY BUT DID NOT AS HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TUTT LOW OVER THE BIG BEND REGION WILL GET PULLED ACROSS THE REGION. INHERITED LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN FORECASTED TRACK OF LOW MOVING SLOWLY WEST. ETA/MESOETA DEVELOPS PRECIP OVER THE WEST LATER TODAY WHILE AVN TENDS TO KEEP IT DRY. WILL LEAN TOWARD ETA AND LEAVE POPS IN. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE EAST DUE TO SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE AND THE WARM TEMPS ALOFT. .LONG TERM... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM LAST NIGHTS REASONING...STILL LOOKS LIKE A QUIET WEEK WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH STABLE CONDITIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE MOUNTAINS WOULD BE WEDNESDAY WHERE GFS 850 MILLIBAR LIFTED INDEXES ARE IN THE 0 TO -1 RANGE WITH A WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCE NEAR THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER. BY THE WEEKEND THE NORTHERN STREAM AMPLIFIES AND A COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...POSSIBLY THE PERMIAN BASIN. WOULD NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE NORTH DUE TO CONVERGENCE AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT BUT INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL PROBABLY SHUNT MAJOR SHORTWAVES NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. WILL NOT MENTION IN ZONES AT THIS TIME BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR. BEYOND THE WEEKEND 850 MILLIBAR LIFTED INDEXES STILL NOT IMPRESSIVE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH A SURFACE LEE TROUGH AND 850 MILLIBAR INDEXES OF 0 TO -1 IN THE EXTREME WEST. WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW SO FAR OUT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...COULD TURN OUT ISOLATED DOWN THE ROAD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 95 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 CARLSBAD NM 93 68 99 69 / 0 10 10 10 DRYDEN TX 91 73 96 69 / 10 0 0 0 FORT STOCKTON TX 94 70 97 69 / 10 0 0 0 GUADALUPE PASS TX 87 67 92 68 / 20 20 10 10 HOBBS NM 92 68 97 68 / 0 10 0 0 MARFA TX 84 60 90 59 / 20 10 10 10 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 93 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 ODESSA TX 93 71 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 WINK TX 98 74 102 71 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. NM...NONE. && $$ 74/12/72