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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLBB Product Timestamp: 2002-05-12 08:30 UTC
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000 FXUS64 KLUB 120831 AFDLBB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 330 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002 LATEST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES FROM KAMA/KLBB SHOW THE FRONT LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH OF PAMPA TO NEAR DIMMITT TO CLOVIS AT 0810Z AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS. WILL GO WITH STRONGER ETA SOLUTION WITH FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH PROFILERS SHOWING 60 KNOT JET FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS (JAYTON) TO OKLAHOMA. THERE MAY BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. ETA MODEL SHOWS THE MID LEVEL CAP DIMINISHING SOME BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS THE FRONT COLLIDES WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE ETA PROG FOR CIN FALLS BY 15Z WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER EAST BUT IT IS WORTH PUTTING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY FOR THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST. POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON BUT THE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STAY UP INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BENIGN PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL MOISTURE CAN MAKE MODEST RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT PATTERN OF TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL OCCUR AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...DRYLINE TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN ON FRIDAY. FRI 66/40/74/47 0000 TIA 68/41/73/48 0000 CDS 73/47/72/49 1000 BNF 75/46/76/47 0000 LUB 73/45/75/47 0000 ASP 80/51/73/50 2-00 .LUB...NONE. TINSLEY