000 
FXUS64 KLUB 120831
AFDLBB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 AM CDT SUN MAY 12 2002

LATEST REFLECTIVITY IMAGES FROM KAMA/KLBB SHOW THE FRONT LOCATED 
ALONG A LINE FROM SOUTH OF PAMPA TO NEAR DIMMITT TO CLOVIS AT 0810Z
AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 KNOTS. WILL GO WITH STRONGER ETA SOLUTION
WITH FRONT MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH PROFILERS SHOWING
60 KNOT JET FROM THE ROLLING PLAINS (JAYTON) TO OKLAHOMA. THERE MAY
BE A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. ETA MODEL SHOWS THE MID
LEVEL CAP DIMINISHING SOME BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS THE FRONT COLLIDES
WITH DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE ETA PROG FOR CIN
FALLS BY 15Z WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR INITIATION WILL BE FARTHER EAST BUT IT IS WORTH PUTTING
IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS MAINLY FOR THIS MORNING SOUTHEAST.
POST-FRONTAL CLOUDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON BUT THE WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL STAY UP INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. BENIGN PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY UNTIL MOISTURE CAN MAKE MODEST
RETURN BY WEDNESDAY. PERSISTENT PATTERN OF TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND STRONG NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM SENDING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE PLAINS WILL OCCUR AGAIN LATER IN THE
WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...DRYLINE TO THE EAST
ON THURSDAY AND COLD FRONT MOVING IN ON FRIDAY.

FRI 66/40/74/47 0000 
TIA 68/41/73/48 0000 
CDS 73/47/72/49 1000 
BNF 75/46/76/47 0000 
LUB 73/45/75/47 0000 
ASP 80/51/73/50 2-00

.LUB...NONE.

TINSLEY