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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDOMA Product Timestamp: 1999-05-06 20:15 UTC
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999 FXUS63 KOAX 062015 AFDOMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 315 PM CDT THU MAY 6 1999 SHORT TERM...FOR TNGT LTL CHANGE IN PATTERN OR FCST PROBLEM. WINDS CONTD NR OR JUST ABV WND ADVSRY CRITERIA EXTREME WESTERN/NWRN CWA. RUC 925 MB WND FCSTS A 5-10KT DECREASE IN WNDS THRU 06Z WHILE OTHER MODEL 850 MB WND FCSTS LTL DECREASE UNTIL TWD 12Z. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL...WL EXTD WND ADVSRY W/NWRN CWA THROUGH 05Z. WK ISENTROPIC LIFT PSBLY AIDED BY WK AFTN HTG REGENERATED LGT PCPN ACRS FCST AREA. ALTHOUGH A HINT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN 295-300K LAYERS CONTS TNGT WITH LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...MODEL OMEGA IS NEAR NIL OR DOWNWARD IN MOTION FCST BY MORNING. SO EVEN THOUGH PCPN COULD END THIS EVENING...FOR NOW WL GENERALLY CONT AN OCCASIONAL OR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IN FCST FOR TNGT. AM NOT CERTAIN PCPN WL END AS EMBEDDED SHORTWV TROFS COULD PSBLY ROTATE BACK INTO NEBR ARND SLOWLY MOVG UPR LOW. LOWS WL PRBLY BE LTL CHANGED FM THIS MORNING. LONGER TERM...MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE ALTHOUGH ETA RMNS COOLEST AT 850 MB THRU SAT WHILE NGM IS A LTL MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFT FCST AND A LTL MORE SW INTO ERN NEBR ON FRI. GENERALLY AVN/ETA COMPROMISE SEEMS BEST...WITH NGM A LTL TOO WRM WITH 850 MB TEMPS AND PSBLY A LTL TOO UNSTABLE TNGT. ALL MODELS KEEP FCST AREA OVC FRI WITH ONLY A SLOW DECREASE IN BYLR TO 850 MB WNDS THROUGH 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP WINDY MENTIONED ALL ZONES FRI. ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN OVC PSBL FRI... STILL PRBLY NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET OUT OF THE 50S BUT PSBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TDA. WL LEAVE POPS GENERALLY ALONE FOR FRI...WITH MODEST QG FORCING MAINLY NERN NEBR INTO WRN IA FCST IN 700-500 MB LYR. COULD BE EVENING SPRINKLES LINGERING INTO FRI NGT BUT OTHERWISE WILL RUN A DRY FCST FRI NGT INTO SAT WITH A CONTD DECREASE IN WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND FORCING ENDS. WNDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW BREEZY CATEGORY AFT MIDNIGHT. WOULD EXPECT IT TO CONT CLDY/MOCLDY FRI NGT W/PERSISTENCE GOOD ON LOWS. FWC PRBLY A LTL TOO WRM ON SAT AS SKIES MAY NOT QUITE CLR QUITE AS FAST AS NGM FWC SUGGESTS...SPCLY ERN ZONES. WL GO CLOSER TO AVN BUT ALLOW FOR A PARTIAL DECREASE IN CLDS AT THIS TIME ALL ZONES SAT. .OMA...WIND ADVSRY TODAY NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM BUTLER TO COLFAX COUNTIES THEN NORTH TO THE SD BORDER. CHERMOK