999 
FXUS63 KOAX 062015
AFDOMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
315 PM CDT THU MAY 6 1999

SHORT TERM...FOR TNGT LTL CHANGE IN PATTERN OR FCST PROBLEM.  WINDS 
CONTD NR OR JUST ABV WND ADVSRY CRITERIA EXTREME WESTERN/NWRN CWA.  
RUC 925 MB WND FCSTS A 5-10KT DECREASE IN WNDS THRU 06Z WHILE OTHER 
MODEL 850 MB WND FCSTS LTL DECREASE UNTIL TWD 12Z.  ALTHOUGH 
MARGINAL...WL EXTD WND ADVSRY W/NWRN CWA THROUGH 05Z.

WK ISENTROPIC LIFT PSBLY AIDED BY WK AFTN HTG REGENERATED LGT PCPN 
ACRS FCST AREA.  ALTHOUGH A HINT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IN 295-300K 
LAYERS CONTS TNGT WITH LOW CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...MODEL 
OMEGA IS NEAR NIL OR DOWNWARD IN MOTION FCST BY MORNING.  SO EVEN 
THOUGH PCPN COULD END THIS EVENING...FOR NOW WL GENERALLY CONT AN 
OCCASIONAL OR PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN IN FCST FOR TNGT.  AM NOT CERTAIN 
PCPN WL END AS EMBEDDED SHORTWV TROFS COULD PSBLY ROTATE BACK INTO 
NEBR ARND SLOWLY MOVG UPR LOW.  LOWS WL PRBLY BE LTL CHANGED FM THIS 
MORNING. 

LONGER TERM...MODELS FAIRLY CLOSE ALTHOUGH ETA RMNS COOLEST AT 850 
MB THRU SAT WHILE NGM IS A LTL MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH LIFT FCST AND A 
LTL MORE SW INTO ERN NEBR ON FRI.  GENERALLY AVN/ETA COMPROMISE 
SEEMS BEST...WITH NGM A LTL TOO WRM WITH 850 MB TEMPS AND PSBLY A 
LTL TOO UNSTABLE TNGT.  ALL MODELS KEEP FCST AREA OVC FRI WITH ONLY 
A SLOW DECREASE IN BYLR TO 850 MB WNDS THROUGH 00Z SAT...SO WL KEEP 
WINDY MENTIONED ALL ZONES FRI.  ALTHOUGH BREAKS IN OVC PSBL FRI...
STILL PRBLY NOT ENOUGH TO ALLOW TEMPS TO GET OUT OF THE 50S BUT 
PSBLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TDA.  WL LEAVE POPS GENERALLY ALONE 
FOR FRI...WITH MODEST QG FORCING MAINLY NERN NEBR INTO WRN IA FCST 
IN 700-500 MB LYR.  

COULD BE EVENING SPRINKLES LINGERING INTO FRI NGT BUT OTHERWISE WILL 
RUN A DRY FCST FRI NGT INTO SAT WITH A CONTD DECREASE IN WINDS AS 
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND FORCING ENDS.  WNDS SHOULD DECREASE 
BELOW BREEZY CATEGORY AFT MIDNIGHT.  WOULD EXPECT IT TO CONT 
CLDY/MOCLDY FRI NGT W/PERSISTENCE GOOD ON LOWS.  FWC PRBLY A LTL TOO 
WRM ON SAT AS SKIES MAY NOT QUITE CLR QUITE AS FAST AS NGM FWC 
SUGGESTS...SPCLY ERN ZONES. WL GO CLOSER TO AVN BUT ALLOW FOR A 
PARTIAL DECREASE IN CLDS AT THIS TIME ALL ZONES SAT.

.OMA...WIND ADVSRY TODAY NORTHEAST NEBRASKA THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM 
BUTLER TO COLFAX COUNTIES THEN NORTH TO THE SD BORDER.

CHERMOK