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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMAF Product Timestamp: 1998-02-17 07:46 UTC
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615 FPUS64 KMAF 170747 AFDMAF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 146 AM CST TUE FEB 17 1998 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH/WEAK FRONT OVER NRN FA WITH WLY WINDS PREDOMINATING S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND NWLY WINDS TO ITS N. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EXITING SHRTWV BUT IR SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AZ ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM APPROACHING W COAST. AS A RESULT...WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TODAY. KMAF 88D REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS OVER NERN ZONES BUT THIS AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD (IR INDICATES WARMING TOPS AS WELL). MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH NEWD TODAY WITH SHRTWV RIDGING IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...NEXT SHRTWV OVER THE W COAST SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN...NGM APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA/AVN SOLUTION THIS GO AROUND. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (WLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FP) WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE POPS DESPITE ASSOCIATED LIFT. ATTM...EXPECT ONLY VIRGA WITH PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL GENERALLY GO ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY AS 1000 TO 500 THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPERATURE INCREASES WARRANT A 2F-4F INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY (LATELY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL ANYWAY ON HIGH TEMPERATURES). FOR TONIGHT...WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE (LAST SEVERAL DAYS). MAF 64/38 01 CNM 63/38 01 MRF 60/27 01 P07 69/41 0- EARLE/GRIFFIN
000 TTAA00 KMAF 170747 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX 146 AM CST TUE FEB 17 1998 07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH/WEAK FRONT OVER NRN FA WITH WLY WINDS PREDOMINATING S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND NWLY WINDS TO ITS N. DEWPOINTS REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EXITING SHRTWV BUT IR SHOWS ANOTHER AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AZ ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM APPROACHING W COAST. AS A RESULT...WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TODAY. KMAF 88D REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT SHOWING LIGHT RETURNS OVER NERN ZONES BUT THIS AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD (IR INDICATES WARMING TOPS AS WELL). MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH NEWD TODAY WITH SHRTWV RIDGING IN ITS WAKE. HOWEVER...NEXT SHRTWV OVER THE W COAST SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. DESPITE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN...NGM APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THIS SYSTEM SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA/AVN SOLUTION THIS GO AROUND. HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (WLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FP) WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE POPS DESPITE ASSOCIATED LIFT. ATTM...EXPECT ONLY VIRGA WITH PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL GENERALLY GO ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY AS 1000 TO 500 THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPERATURE INCREASES WARRANT A 2F-4F INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY (LATELY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL ANYWAY ON HIGH TEMPERATURES). 2FOR TONIGHT...WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A MIX OF GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE (LAST SEVERAL DAYS). MAF 64/38 01 CNM 63/38 01 MRF 60/27 01 P07 69/41 0- EARLE/GRIFFIN