615 
FPUS64 KMAF 170747
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND TX
146 AM CST TUE FEB 17 1998
 
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS TROUGH/WEAK FRONT OVER NRN FA WITH WLY WINDS
PREDOMINATING S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND NWLY WINDS TO ITS N.  DEWPOINTS
REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE AREA.  LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS
AREA OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EXITING SHRTWV BUT IR SHOWS ANOTHER
AREA OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AZ ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM
APPROACHING W COAST.  AS A RESULT...WILL LIKELY SEE INCREASING
CLOUDS LATER TODAY.  KMAF 88D REFLECTIVITY PRODUCT SHOWING LIGHT
RETURNS OVER NERN ZONES BUT THIS AREA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT
PROGRESSES SEWD (IR INDICATES WARMING TOPS AS WELL).

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING NEGATIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH NEWD
TODAY WITH SHRTWV RIDGING IN ITS WAKE.  HOWEVER...NEXT SHRTWV OVER
THE W COAST SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DESPITE PROGRESSIVE WX PATTERN...NGM APPEARS TOO FAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER ETA/AVN SOLUTION THIS GO
AROUND.  HOWEVER...DUE TO A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (WLY WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FP) WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE POPS DESPITE
ASSOCIATED LIFT.  ATTM...EXPECT ONLY VIRGA WITH PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL GENERALLY GO ABOVE GUIDANCE TODAY AS
1000 TO 500 THICKNESSES AND H85 TEMPERATURE INCREASES WARRANT A
2F-4F INCREASE FROM YESTERDAY (LATELY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO COOL
ANYWAY ON HIGH TEMPERATURES).  FOR TONIGHT...WILL GENERALLY GO WITH A
MIX OF GUIDANCE AND PERSISTENCE (LAST SEVERAL DAYS).

MAF  64/38 01
CNM  63/38 01
MRF  60/27 01
P07  69/41 0-

EARLE/GRIFFIN