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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLAS Product Timestamp: 1998-02-01 11:00 UTC
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487 FPUS65 KLAS 011102 AFDLAS MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 300 AM PST SUN FEB 1 1998 00Z MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INTO MON...THE NERN PAC VORTEX AND BLOCKING RDG OVR ROCKY MTN REGION WILL DIRECT NUMEROUS SHRTWVS TO THE NW OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY INTO NRN CA). STG PAC JET OF 170+ KTS FOCUSES EXIT REGION DIVERGENCE THIS SAME AREA THRU MON RESULTING IN BEST DYNAMICS OVR NRN/CNTRL CA. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...AVN APPEARS TOO FAR S AND AGGRESSIVE WITH IT/S QPF AND AGREE WITH NCEP QPF BRANCH THAT MAIN PCPN EVENT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WITH RAIN SHADOW PREVENTING ANY SIG PCPN FROM REACHING NV ZONES OR EVEN EAST SLOPES OF SIERRA. IN SHORT...THAT MEANS LTL CHG TO EXISTING FCST WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS ON SKY COVER AND MISC WORDING. POSSIBLE THAT ERN SLOPES IN INYO COUNTY WILL SEE SIG PCPN LATER IN THE DAY MON (PER ETA QPF) AS DYNAMICS BEGIN TO WORK INTO CNTRL CA. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM AS THERE IS STILL AMPLE TIME FOR SECOND PERIOD ISSUANCE (BY DAY CREW) AND QPF AMTS STILL IN QUESTION. WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN WX EVENT MON AFT IN SIERRA MTNS AND THIS COVERED IN CURRENT FCST. UPR TROF TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION OFF W COAST BY 00Z TUE WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OFF THE CA COAST. PER AVN/MRF...UPR TROF TO THEN BEGIN MOVING INLAND ACROSS CA DURING TUE WITH STG HGT FALLS AND DYNAMICS WORKING EWD ACRS SRN CA AND INTO SRN NV TUE AFTERNON AND EVENING. HENCE TUE INTO WED STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR STRONG WINDS AND SIG PCPN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA. LAS 000. NEMETH SRN NV...NONE ERN CA...NONE NW AZ....NONE
000 TTAA00 KLAS 011102 MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV 300 AM PST SUN FEB 1 1998 00Z MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INTO MON...THE NERN PAC VORTEX AND BLOCKING RDG OVR ROCKY MTN REGION WILL DIRECT NUMEROUS SHRTWVS TO THE NW OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY INTO NRN CA). STG PAC JET OF 170+ KTS FOCUSES EXIT REGION DIVERGENCE THIS SAME AREA THRU MON RESULTING IN BEST DYNAMICS OVR NRN/CNTRL CA. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS...AVN APPEARS TOO FAR S AND AGGRESSIVE WITH IT/S QPF AND AGREE WITH NCEP QPF BRANCH THAT MAIN PCPN EVENT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WITH RAIN SHADOW PREVENTING ANY SIG PCPN FROM REACHING NV ZONES OR EVEN EAST SLOPES OF SIERRA. IN SHORT...THAT MEANS LTL CHG TO EXISTING FCST WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS ON SKY COVER AND MISC WORDING. POSSIBLE THAT ERN SLOPES IN INYO COUNTY WILL SEE SIG PCPN LATER IN THE DAY MON (PER ETA QPF) AS DYNAMICS BEGIN TO WORK INTO CNTRL CA. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM AS THERE IS STILL AMPLE TIME FOR SECOND PERIOD ISSUANCE (BY DAY CREW) AND QPF AMTS STILL IN QUESTION. WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN WX EVENT MON AFT IN SIERRA MTNS AND THIS COVERED IN CURRENT FCST. UPR TROF TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION OFF W COAST BY 00Z TUE WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE OFF THE CA COAST. PER AVN/MRF...UPR TROF TO THEN BEGIN MOVING INLAND ACROSS CA DURING TUE WITH STG HGT FALLS AND DYNAMICS WORKING EWD ACRS SRN CA AND INTO SRN NV TUE AFTERNON AND EVENING. HENCE TUE INTO WED STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR STRONG WINDS AND SIG PCPN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA. LAS 000. NEMETH SRN NV...NONE ERN CA...NONE NW AZ....NONE