487 
FPUS65 KLAS 011102
AFDLAS

MOJAVE DESERT/SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PST SUN FEB 1 1998

00Z MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INTO MON...THE NERN PAC VORTEX
AND BLOCKING RDG OVR ROCKY MTN REGION WILL DIRECT NUMEROUS SHRTWVS TO
THE NW OF OUR FCST AREA (MAINLY INTO NRN CA).  STG PAC JET OF 170+
KTS FOCUSES EXIT REGION DIVERGENCE THIS SAME AREA THRU MON RESULTING
IN BEST DYNAMICS OVR NRN/CNTRL CA. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW MODEL
RUNS...AVN APPEARS TOO FAR S AND AGGRESSIVE WITH IT/S QPF AND AGREE
WITH NCEP QPF BRANCH THAT MAIN PCPN EVENT WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WITH RAIN SHADOW PREVENTING ANY SIG PCPN FROM
REACHING NV ZONES OR EVEN EAST SLOPES OF SIERRA.  IN SHORT...THAT
MEANS LTL CHG TO EXISTING FCST WITH JUST SOME TWEAKS ON SKY COVER AND
MISC WORDING.

POSSIBLE THAT ERN SLOPES IN INYO COUNTY WILL SEE SIG PCPN LATER IN
THE DAY MON (PER ETA QPF) AS DYNAMICS BEGIN TO WORK INTO CNTRL CA.
HOWEVER...WILL HOLD OFF ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH ATTM AS THERE IS
STILL AMPLE TIME FOR SECOND PERIOD ISSUANCE (BY DAY CREW) AND QPF
AMTS STILL IN QUESTION.  WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE MAIN WX EVENT MON AFT
IN SIERRA MTNS AND THIS COVERED IN CURRENT FCST.  UPR TROF TO UNDERGO
AMPLIFICATION OFF W COAST BY 00Z TUE WITH STRONG CYCLOGENESIS TAKING
PLACE OFF THE CA COAST. PER AVN/MRF...UPR TROF TO THEN BEGIN MOVING
INLAND ACROSS CA DURING TUE WITH STG HGT FALLS AND DYNAMICS WORKING
EWD ACRS SRN CA AND INTO SRN NV TUE AFTERNON AND EVENING.  HENCE TUE
INTO WED STILL LOOKS TO BE THE BEST PERIOD FOR STRONG WINDS AND SIG
PCPN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FCST AREA. LAS 000.

NEMETH

SRN NV...NONE
ERN CA...NONE
NW AZ....NONE