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FXUS63 KABR 182139

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
339 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

Main concerns in the short term is the gusty winds and low wind 
chills for tonight. Wind advisory continues until 9pm with a wind 
chill advisory going into effect at midnight for most of the 
northern half of the CWA.

We are seeing some light snow showers on radar across parts of 
Brown, Marshall, and Day counties. Added in some slight pops, based 
of across that area over the next few hours. Based off of satellite, 
we are seeing blowing snow in North Dakota continuing to push 
southeast. With the snow in our area crusted over, that should limit 
any lofting of snow from the strong winds, which has been confirmed 
thus far in webcams. So any lingering snow that crosses into 
northeastern part of our cwa, should diminish in intensity. Did add 
in some patchy blowing snow over far northeastern South Dakota into 
western Minnesota, to account for some blowing snow advecting into 
the area.

Wind advisory continues until 9pm. Looking at the soundings, 
winds continue to be gusty and good mixing occurring due to the 
cold air advection behind the cold front. If winds are still at 
wind advisory criteria past 9pm, and extension may be needed. 
Winds will start to decrease overnight as winds aloft become 
lighter, with the high pressure system moving in. Partly to mostly
cloudy skies will continue through early Wednesday morning. The 
combination of northwest winds and the arctic air flowing in will 
lead to wind chill advisory conditions tonight into Wednesday 
morning. We did expand the advisory into Corson county. Low 
temperatures will be ranging from 11 below zero to single digits 
above 0 across the cwa with wind chill values as low as 35 below 

Quiet weather expected for Wednesday into Wednesday night with the 
high pressure system moving in across the upper Midwest. This will 
clear out the remaining clouds and bring down the winds. Trended 
overnight lows a little colder, due to the light winds and clear 
skies for Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022

The long term looks to feature a continuation of the recent long 
wave pattern over the CONUS. That pattern being a mid level ridge 
along the Pacific coast, with ridging downstream over the 
central/eastern CONUS. This will likely lead to a couple 
opportunities for light pcpn, as well as quite variable temperatures 
as several clipper-like systems affect the Northern Plains. The 
first system looks to move into and across the region late Thursday 
night through Friday night. NBM probabilities of light measurable 
pcpn are pretty high at 40-60 percent across the CWA. But, move up 
to a tenth of an inch or greater and probabilities drop to less than 
15 percent. Another couple of systems will bring more chances to the 
area for the weekend into early next week. Each of these looks to 
only bring light pcpn/snow to the area. However, overall impacts 
from this activity could provide for some wx impacts, but forecaster 
confidence is low right now with the details. Temperatures are 
another area where forecast confidence is somewhat low, especially 
this weekend into early next week. Even though the deterministic 
models overall look quite similar, ensemble member temperture plumes 
from the ECMWF/GEFS indicate quite a wide spread in temperatures for 
next week. Given the big uncertainty with temperature forecasts, for 
now the best option is to stick with the model blend for highs/lows.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022


MVFR stratus continuing to move in from the northwest. Clouds will
remain scattered to broken this afternoon continuing into tonight,
over northeastern SD. Skies will clear over KPIR tonight.
Northwest winds continue to be gusty across the area through
tonight, before the high pressure system brings in lighter winds
late tonight into Wednesday.


SD...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for 

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to 
     noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for SDZ003>011-016>023.

MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-046.

     Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday 
     for MNZ039-046.