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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDABR Received: 2022-01-18 21:39 UTC
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687 FXUS63 KABR 182139 AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 339 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 .SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night) Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 Main concerns in the short term is the gusty winds and low wind chills for tonight. Wind advisory continues until 9pm with a wind chill advisory going into effect at midnight for most of the northern half of the CWA. We are seeing some light snow showers on radar across parts of Brown, Marshall, and Day counties. Added in some slight pops, based of across that area over the next few hours. Based off of satellite, we are seeing blowing snow in North Dakota continuing to push southeast. With the snow in our area crusted over, that should limit any lofting of snow from the strong winds, which has been confirmed thus far in webcams. So any lingering snow that crosses into northeastern part of our cwa, should diminish in intensity. Did add in some patchy blowing snow over far northeastern South Dakota into western Minnesota, to account for some blowing snow advecting into the area. Wind advisory continues until 9pm. Looking at the soundings, winds continue to be gusty and good mixing occurring due to the cold air advection behind the cold front. If winds are still at wind advisory criteria past 9pm, and extension may be needed. Winds will start to decrease overnight as winds aloft become lighter, with the high pressure system moving in. Partly to mostly cloudy skies will continue through early Wednesday morning. The combination of northwest winds and the arctic air flowing in will lead to wind chill advisory conditions tonight into Wednesday morning. We did expand the advisory into Corson county. Low temperatures will be ranging from 11 below zero to single digits above 0 across the cwa with wind chill values as low as 35 below 0. Quiet weather expected for Wednesday into Wednesday night with the high pressure system moving in across the upper Midwest. This will clear out the remaining clouds and bring down the winds. Trended overnight lows a little colder, due to the light winds and clear skies for Wednesday night. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 The long term looks to feature a continuation of the recent long wave pattern over the CONUS. That pattern being a mid level ridge along the Pacific coast, with ridging downstream over the central/eastern CONUS. This will likely lead to a couple opportunities for light pcpn, as well as quite variable temperatures as several clipper-like systems affect the Northern Plains. The first system looks to move into and across the region late Thursday night through Friday night. NBM probabilities of light measurable pcpn are pretty high at 40-60 percent across the CWA. But, move up to a tenth of an inch or greater and probabilities drop to less than 15 percent. Another couple of systems will bring more chances to the area for the weekend into early next week. Each of these looks to only bring light pcpn/snow to the area. However, overall impacts from this activity could provide for some wx impacts, but forecaster confidence is low right now with the details. Temperatures are another area where forecast confidence is somewhat low, especially this weekend into early next week. Even though the deterministic models overall look quite similar, ensemble member temperture plumes from the ECMWF/GEFS indicate quite a wide spread in temperatures for next week. Given the big uncertainty with temperature forecasts, for now the best option is to stick with the model blend for highs/lows. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon) Issued at 1136 AM CST Tue Jan 18 2022 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG MVFR stratus continuing to move in from the northwest. Clouds will remain scattered to broken this afternoon continuing into tonight, over northeastern SD. Skies will clear over KPIR tonight. Northwest winds continue to be gusty across the area through tonight, before the high pressure system brings in lighter winds late tonight into Wednesday. && .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ this evening for SDZ003>011-015>023-033>037-045-048-051. Wind Chill Advisory from midnight CST /11 PM MST/ tonight to noon CST /11 AM MST/ Wednesday for SDZ003>011-016>023. MN...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for MNZ039-046. Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Wednesday for MNZ039-046. && $$ SHORT TERM...MMM LONG TERM...TDK AVIATION...MMM