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631 FXUS02 KWBC 080626 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 226 AM EDT Sun Jun 8 2025 Valid 12Z Wed Jun 11 2025 - 12Z Sun Jun 15 2025 ...Heavy rain and flash flood threat for the south-central U.S. next week... ...Overview... A frontal boundary settled across the South early to mid week before eventually lifting northward will continue to provide focus for moderate to heavy rainfall across portions of the South and into the middle Mississippi Valley. To the north, a shortwave moving through the Northwest through the northern Plains will bring showers and thunderstorms mid to late next week. Rainfall will increase in coverage across the Ohio Valley into the East next weekend ahead of shortwave energy lifting into the region from the southern Plains. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest suite of model and ensemble guidance all continue to show above average agreement on the overall large scale pattern and evolution during the medium range period, but still with plenty of uncertainty in the details which would impact sensible weather. Early period issues surround waves of energy sliding through the Northeast, but a general model blend seems to provide a good starting point for details that will need until the short range to resolve. Behind this, there are differences in the timing and strength of a shortwave lifting from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley later in the week, which has bigger implications on QPF coverage and amounts across this region. A shortwave into the Northwest mid week looks good for timing, but bigger issues arise next weekend with energy around an upper low as it drops southward. This affects additional shortwave timing into the West. The late period blend for WPC leaned slightly more heavily on the ensemble means to help mitigate these differences. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A trailing frontal boundary draped generally west to east across the South will continue to provide focus for numerous showers and thunderstorms through most of next week. Guidance continues to converge of central Texas into Oklahoma for multiple days of heavy rainfall, with parts of this area already primed from recent rainfall. Accordingly, the Days 4 and 5 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks (valid Wednesday and Thursday) show slight risk areas across this region. Intentionally kept the slight risks (and surrounding marginal risks) broad given some lingering uncertainties in exactly where possible convective complexes track and the location of heaviest rain. If the forecast materializes though, it is possible a moderate risk area may be needed at some point in the future. By Thursday and Friday, this front should lift north pulling the heavier rains out of Texas, but continuing for parts of Oklahoma into the middle Mississippi Valley, eventually moving into the Ohio Valley and East next weekend. A shortwave interacting with a frontal boundary across the northern tier will bring showers and storms across parts of the northern Rockies into the Upper Midwest. Moisture anomalies should be above the 90th percentile in especially Montana, supporting a Marginal Risk on the Wednesday and Thursday ERO. Additionally, convection is likely to move through the north- central U.S. along the cusp of the instability gradient and thus the Marginal Risk also extends east into the Upper Midwest. A heat wave during the short range period over the West should moderate by the start of the medium range period, though above normal temperatures may continue across the West through the period. Daytime highs generally could be 5 to locally 15 degrees above normal. Otherwise, the rest of the country looks near normal or within a few degrees of normal depending on quick systems moving through. Santorelli Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$