National Weather Service Raw Text Product

371 
ACUS11 KWNS 170224
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170223 
KSZ000-170430-

Mesoscale Discussion 0455
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0923 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 170223Z - 170430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and potentially strong/damaging
surface gusts are possible as elevated storms move eastward this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Moisture return continues this evening in the
southern/central Plains. Dewpoints have risen into the mid 50s F in
south-central Kansas. Even with this increase in low-level moisture,
cooling surface temperatures have contributed to slowly increasing
CIN. With the low-level jet increasing within the region (around 50
kts per KVNX and KICT VAD data), convection has increased in
coverage and intensity near and east of Dodge City. A continued
increase in 850 mb winds through the evening will support additional
convective development and potentially some clustering as activity
moves into parts of eastern Kansas. There is some possibility that
additional storms can develop north of the current activity, but
confidence is low.

The observed soundings at Dodge City and Topeka showed steep
mid-level lapse rates (around 8 C/km). The stronger elevated storms
would be capable of large hail given over 50 kts of effective shear.
If storms can cluster later this evening, there would be some
potential for a strong/damaging surface gust to occur as well.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/17/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   37299791 37399941 37520009 37590037 37750039 38110017
            38979984 39369833 38979608 38219530 37649561 37429623
            37269720 37299791 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN