National Weather Service Raw Text Product

960 
FXUS64 KMEG 012021
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
321 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

-A very unsettled and active pattern will begin tomorrow. Several
 days of severe weather and heavy rainfall are expected through 
 Saturday.
 
-Seven day total rainfall amounts are in the 10 to 15 inch range
 along and north of I-40, with the heaviest amounts falling from 
 Wednesday to Saturday.

-A Moderate Risk of severe weather is present on Wednesday, a 
 Slight Risk is in effect Thursday through Saturday.

-A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in effect Wednesday. For
 Thursday, the excessive rainfall risk increases to a High Risk.
 Additional Moderate Risks of excessive rainfall are in place for
 Friday and Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

A dangerous period of weather will begin Wednesday as a shortwave
ejects from the Rockies. This feature will kick-off surface
cyclogenesis in the northern Plains with an attendant cold front
accompanying the low. Both the GFS and ECMWF depict the center of
low pressure dropping to around 985mb over portions of Nebraska
and South Dakota. As this system translates east, it will tighten
the pressure gradient over the Mid-South. A Wind Advisory is now
in effect from 7AM Wednesday to 12AM Thursday for the majority of
the Mid-South. Sustained wind speeds of 25 mph and gusts up to 50
mph are anticipated at this time. 

In addition to strong gradient winds, the Mid-South will sit in a
prime location for severe storm development. Strong moisture
advection from the Gulf will allow mid 60s dewpoints to overspread
the region. In addition, afternoon highs will reach the 80s, which
is anomalously high for this time of year. As such, the Mid-South
will sit in an open warm sector characterized by 2000+ J/kg of
SBCAPE and bulk shear near 50kts. Forecast soundings depict a 
stout EML in place for most of the day. However, models continue 
to break this cap as height falls increase and ascent grows in 
response to the right entrance region of an upper-level jet. Once 
this cap erosion occurs, rapid convective initiation is 
anticipated over Arkansas. Initially, the primary threat will be 
hail around two inches in diameter as storms move through the 
region. The tornado threat will increase around sunset as a LLJ 
kicks in and elongates hodographs. A strong tornado or two cannot 
be ruled out with any supercells that develop over the Mid-South 
tomorrow. Eventually, storms will congeal into a line. Embedded 
supercells will be possible once this line forms, but the main 
concern will be mesovortices that drop spin-up tornadoes. In 
addition, bowing segments will have the potential to produce winds
greater than 70 mph. The severe weather threat will wane around 
midnight.

Unfortunately, severe weather will continue to be an issue through
Saturday as storms fire along the stalled boundary each day.
Uncertainty remains regarding how the airmass will evolve due to
continuous convection. Therefore, the Storm Prediction Center has
included the Mid-South in a Slight Risk for severe storms Thursday
through Saturday. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are anticipated
during this period.

Catastrophic flooding remains possible in portions of the Mid-
South Wednesday through Saturday as the previously discussed front
stalls right along the I-40 corridor. Numerous rounds of showers 
and thunderstorms will plague the Mid-South almost continuously 
for nearly 72 hours. This will result in an axis of 10-15 inches 
of rain falling along and north of I-40. Rapid onset flooding is 
anticipated Thursday with several rivers and streams rising to and
above bankfull. The highest rainfall totals will reside in 
northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and northwest 
Tennessee. Further southeast, totals will taper off with Monroe 
County, MS seeing 2-4 inches. Particularly Dangerous Situation 
wording was included in the latest update to the Flood Watch to 
account for the higher QPF in northeast Arkansas, the Missouri 
Bootheel, and northwest Tennessee. 

An end to this madness will come on Sunday as a strong cold front
pushes through the area, finally displacing the stalled boundary.
Rain will taper off throughout Sunday with dry weather returning 
Monday. Until then, stay safe and weather aware Mid-South.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

Wind will remain the primary concern through the TAF period. A 
developing low level jet (LLJ) will present some compression 
potential at MEM this evening, and LLWS at the other TAF sites. 
This LLJ will bring an MVFR cloud deck that will partially mix out
and lift to a SCT/BKN VFR deck by middle to late morning Wednesday.

Corridor of TSRA will likely develop over AR after 18Z Wednesday.
Convective inhibition will likely limit TSRA chances at MEM until
beyond the valid TAF period. But a convective corridor will likely
develop over eastern AR by 21Z, sufficiently close to warrant 
inclusion of PROB30 TSRA late Wednesday afternoon.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to midnight CDT Wednesday 
     night for ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday morning for 
     ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058.

MO...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to midnight CDT Wednesday 
     night for MOZ113-115.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday morning for 
     MOZ113-115.

MS...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to midnight CDT Wednesday 
     night for MSZ001>003-007-008-010>012-020.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday morning for 
     MSZ001>017-020>024.

TN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Wednesday to midnight CDT Wednesday 
     night for TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

     Flood Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Sunday morning for 
     TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...ANS
AVIATION...PWB