National Weather Service Raw Text Product

017 
FXUS66 KLOX 091643
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 
843 AM PST Thu Jan 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...09/450 AM.

An offshore flow pattern will likely remain mostly in place
through the middle of next week and keep dry conditions in place
through period. Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue across the 
Southland into Friday, strengthening again tonight through Friday 
morning. Another round of gusty north to northeast winds will 
develop between Saturday and Sunday, then a stronger offshore wind
event is possible between Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...09/454 AM.

Offshore flow remains in place across the area as strong surface 
high pressure remains over the northern Intermountain Region and 
into Great Basin early this morning. Santa Ana winds are running
much weaker this morning versus the last two days, but the gusty
winds are still expected to strengthen again after sunrise.
Critical fire weather conditions with warm and dry conditions are
expected, but outside of smoke from the fires, a warm day with 
sunny skies is expected with temperatures in the 70s. 

Fire weather conditions will remain critical into tonight and
Friday with another round of northeast winds expected to develop 
tonight. Winds are expected to strengthen this evening and another
moderate to locally strong Santa Ana wind event is forecast. Wind
advisories remain in effect for most Southland coastal and valley
areas, and all the mountain areas today. Wind gusts between 35 
and 50 mph will be common across the advisory area through this 
evening, then the winds will increase. Wind gusts are expected to
increase by about 10-15 mph tonight through Friday morning. Wind 
advisories have been extended across many coastal and valley areas
into Friday afternoon, while a High Wind Watch remains in effect 
across the Santa Clarita Valley and all of the mountain areas of 
Los Angeles and Ventura Counties from tonight through Friday 
afternoon. There is a high likelihood for additional damaging wind
gusts across the mountains into the foothill areas again tonight 
and into Friday.

Offshore flow may briefly break down along the coast and the lower
valley areas between Friday and Saturday. A return of the sea
breeze into the valleys will allow for the fire weather conditions
to moderate some, but another offshore wind event is expected to 
develop between Saturday night and Sunday. Gusty northerly winds 
will likely develop between Friday night and Saturday night across
southern Santa Barbara County and through the Interstate 5
Corridor. Wind advisories may be needed across these areas each
night, possibly extending into the morning through the Interstate
5 Corridor. The flow pattern will transition from northerly to
northeasterly between Saturday and Sunday, and this will allow for
gusty Santa Ana to redevelop. There is a moderate chance that 
Santa Lucia winds will develop, as well. Wind headlines will 
likely be needed again for the gusty Santa Ana winds, and there is
a decent chance of critical fire weather conditions redeveloping 
during this period.

In wind-sheltered areas locations, clear skies and light winds
will allow for radiative cooling processes overnight to be more 
efficient. Frost advisories were issued last evening issued for 
the Santa Barbara County Central Coast, the Santa Barbara 
Southeastern coast, and the Ojai Valley. So far, this is working 
out mostly, but the Santa Barbara Southeastern coast is running 
a little too warm at this time. There has been a little larger 
stretch of colder overnight temperatures into the Nipomo area and
the Los Osos Valley this morning. A stretch of cold overnight low
temperatures is expected in the wind-sheltered areas and across 
the interior valleys for the next several nights. While the 
interior valleys and the Santa Ynez Valley have had several 
freezes previously, frost and freeze headline may needed for the 
remaining areas, such as the Central Coast, Santa Barbara South 
Coast, and the Ojai Valley.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...09/457 AM.

Gusty Santa Ana winds will linger into Sunday morning. Wind
headlines should cut off during the afternoon hours. With the
wind dropping off and clear skies, a cold night could be shaping
up for Sunday night and into Monday morning. The latest forecast
guidance and forecast ensemble all lean for some colder nights 
and mornings between Sunday night and Monday morning, and again
Monday night through Tuesday morning. Overnight low temperatures
break away from NBM values during this period. The highest chance
of widespread frost and freeze conditions across wind-sheltered
locations could be during this stretch. A freeze watch could be
needed for the Central Coast and Ojai Valley as we get closer and
more confidence can be placed in the pattern developing. Overnight
low temperatures dipping into the teens cannot be ruled out across
the interior valleys, which may necessitate the rare additional 
issuances of freeze warning due to the potential for pipes 
freezing in the Antelope Valley. Frost advisories could also be
needed for the Ventura County valleys and the western portion of
the San Fernando Valley.

Forecast ensembles are starting to identify another potentially
strong and damaging Santa Ana wind event developing between
Tuesday night and Wednesday. EPS ensemble members are hinting at 
wind gust means approaching 50 mph at KOXR, KCMA, and K3A6, the 
typical Santa Ana wind corridor. This would be concerning with 
likely no rain expected and the Tuesday night-Wednesday time 
period being the fourth offshore event in the stretch. There is 
great concern that fire weather conditions could become exacerbated
given the antecedent conditions, little rain across the area 
since the Spring of 2024, and another offshore wind event on top 
of all of what we have seen, so far. Residents are urged to stay 
tuned to latest information and remain vigilant in steps to 
protect your life and property.

&&

.AVIATION...09/1253Z.

At 12Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Good confidence in VFR conds thru the period, except for local 
MVFR/IFR conds due to smoke through mid to late morning and again
tonight near any fires. Moderate confidence in wind forecast due 
to frequent changes in wind direction and speed.

Gusty N to NE winds are expected to affect the mountains of Los 
Angeles and Ventura Counties, the Ventura County coast and 
valleys, the L.A. County valleys and the Malibu Coast at times
through Fri morning. 

There will be areas of mdt turbulence and LLWS, with mdt UDDF
at times through Fri morning, especially over and near the 
mountains. 
 
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the TAF. The edge of the
smoke plume from the Palisades Fire will be close to the airport
today, with bkn025 in smoke at times (60% chance), especially 
thru 20Z. There is a 30% chance of 4SM FU thru 20Z. Winds will 
likely vary between 350 and 070 thru 20Z. There is a 30% chance 
of N-NE wind gusts to 15-20 kt thru 20Z and again 09Z-17Z Fri.

KBUR...Fairly high confidence in VFR conds thru the period. There
is a 20% chance of 4SM FU BKN025 in smoke, especially thru 20Z and
after 09Z. Lower confidence in wind fcst. Timing of wind changes 
could be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 30% chance of NE wind
gusts to 30 kt thru 20Z today. Ocnl mdt turbc is possible thru 17Z.

&&

.MARINE...09/842 AM.

Across the inner waters south of Pt. Conception, NE winds have 
generally decreased below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels.
However, SCA level winds continued locally just off Malibu. Winds
will increase a bit this morning, with SCA level NE winds likely 
(60% chance) from Ventura to Santa Monica and out to eastern Santa
Cruz Island and Anacapa Island. Winds will continue at SCA levels
in this area much of the time thru Fri morning, with a lull 
expected late this afternoon/early tonight. There is a 30% chance
of SCA level NE winds across the San Pedro Channel, especially 
late this morning, and again Fri morning.

There is a 60% chance of SCA level NE winds from Ventura to Santa
Monica and out to Anacapa and Santa Cruz Islands very late Sat 
night/Sun morning and a 40% chance Mon into Mon night.

In the outer waters, there is a 20-30% chance of SCA level NW 
winds this afternoon and evening, and a 30% chance of SCA level NE
winds in the southern zone (PZZ676) late tonight and Fri morning.
SCA conds are not expected Fri afternoon/Fri night, then are 
likely (60% chance) Sat thru Sun due to winds and seas. Seas will 
likely be near or above SCA levels Sun night thru Mon night. 

Across the inner waters north of Pt. Sal, SCA conds are not
expected thru Mon night.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 88-375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Watch remains in effect from 6 PM PST this evening
      through Friday afternoon for zones 88-375>380. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Frost Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM PST this morning
      for zones 346-347-350-357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until 2 PM PST Friday for
      zones 354-355-358-362-371>374-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Freeze Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
      Friday morning for zone 357. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory remains in effect until midnight PST tonight
      for zones 369-370. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Wind Watch remains in effect from late tonight through
      Friday afternoon for zones 369-370. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect until 6 PM PST Friday for zones
      288-354-355-358-362-368>380-548. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST Friday for
      zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall
AVIATION...DB
MARINE...DB/Black
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox