National Weather Service Raw Text Product

017 
FXUS64 KMEG 281945
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
245 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

...New DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

High pressure will settle over the region with dry weather through
Thursday. Frost is likely over much of the Mid-South late tonight
into Wednesday morning. Temperatures will gradually warm into the  
70s by late week. An strong upper level trough and cold front 
will bring chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Friday and
Friday night. Cool and dry weather will return for Saturday
with warmer temperatures for Sunday. 

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

Currently...Cool high pressure is building into the area with
brisk north winds and temps in the upper 50s and lower 60s. A few
cu are popping over the Delta otrw sunny skies prevail. 

Tonight through Thursday...High pressure will settle over the 
region with diminishing winds and clear skies. Excellent 
radiational cooling conds will allows temps to fall deep into the
30s with areas or widespread frost expected across the northern 
2/3rds of the Mid-South. Areas of West Tennessee near the TN 
River Valley could see a light freeze and touch the freezing mark 
but the length of time at 32F should be short so elected to go 
with a Frost Advisory for now. High pressure will remain over the 
area Wednesday and temps will remain cool with highs in the 60s. 
By Thursday the high start slipping east and southerly flow starts
developing and temps start climbing into the upper 60s and 
lower/mid 70s. 

Friday and Friday night...A potent upper trough will eject out of
the 4 corners region Thursday night and push into the MS Valley on
Friday. A powerful mid level jet will rotate into the region with
lots of shear available as 0-6km bulk shear of 60-70 kts spreads
over the area. The boundary layer is looking increasingly 
unstable with strong moisture advection will bringing mid 60s 
dewpoints into the region. SBCAPES in the 500 to 1000 J/KG range 
will support severe storms. The surface low is tracking well to 
the north along the the strongest lift which may leave the Mid- 
South in the region favorable for discrete supercells. CSU 
machine learning and SLU CIPS are all pointing toward a 
potentially significant severe event Friday afternoon into Friday 
night with all modes of severe weather possible. One piece of good
news is that rainfall amounts will not be too heavy since there 
is no stalled front across the area ahead of the event to focus on
and the system is fairly progressive. 

Saturday and Sunday...High pressure builds over the area with cool
and dry weather for Saturday and moderating temps for Sunday. 

Monday and Tuesday...Warm, moist and unstable air returns early 
next week. 12z models are not in great agreement but the general 
trend is that it could be an active period with more potential 
severe weather as disturbances move through followed by a cold 
front toward Tuesday night or Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2023

VFR conds will persist over the next 30 hours. Gusty north winds
this afternoon will subside and shift to the east and southeast 
by tomorrow morning. 

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Wednesday for TNZ003-004-
     020>022-052-054-055.

&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...SJM
AVIATION...AC3