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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMTR Product Timestamp: 2019-05-16 11:59 UTC
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304
FXUS66 KMTR 161159
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
459 AM PDT Thu May 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather conditions will persist through the
first half of Thursday resulting in widespread rainfall and the
potential for thunderstorms. After a break Thursday night into
Friday, another storm system will move through the region Saturday
into early Sunday morning. Wet and unsettled conditions may
potentially continue into next week as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 03:02 AM PDT Thursday...On Wednesday a storm
system brought moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds to the
region. Many locations around the Bay Area received a decent
amount of rainfall in one day for the month of May. While not
officially climate stations a few notable locations recorded
unofficial daily records: Venado hit 5" (old 1.08" in 2000), Santa
Rosa Airport 2.1" (old 0.29" in 2011) and Oakland Airport 0.41"
(old 0.31" in 2000). Needless to say the much hyped anomalously
wet May system did pretty well.
Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front is just about
through the entire forecast area as of 2:30 AM. There are still a
few scattered showers per KMUX radar imagery, but the bulk of the
moisture and widespread rainfall have moved east with the cold
front. It's not completely over though. The surface low pressure
and upper level low still have to move through the region today
and early tonight. Latest models move the low across NorCal this
afternoon/evening. As a result, scattered showers will be possible
through early Friday. Rainfall amounts will be much less than the
Wednesday frontal passage. Totals will be highest across the North
Bay Mountains with 1-2.5", Coastal Mts 0.5-1", North Bay Valleys
0.25-0.75", and 0.1-0.5" elsewhere. The chance(15%) for
thunderstorms still exists today with the passing low. SPC has
most of the forecast area in a general mention for at least some
thunderstorms. As usual, the Central Valley has a greater chance
for thunderstorms.
High pressure will gradually build over the region Thursday night
into Friday allowing for a brief break in the action. Temperatures
may warm slightly on Friday as well. The ridge slides eastward on
Friday night as another system takes aim at the Bay Area on
Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances return early Saturday across the
North Bay before spreading southward through the day. Not as much
rainfall as the Wednesday system, but another good push of
moisture for May. Atmospheric River guidance suggests high enough
IVT values for a weak AR on Saturday. Ensemble guidance also
shows another round of anomalous height falls over the weekend
with the passing low. Thunderstorm chances also return for Sunday
night into Monday with the passing upper low.
Another break in the action early Tuesday, but medium range models
show active weather continues the middle of next week with
additional lows dropping down the CA Coast. Stay tuned...
Lastly, the seven day rainfall forecast continues to indicate
that a large portion of CA is on track to receive 150-200% of the
monthly rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 04:50 AM PDT Thursday...Post frontal environment
will bring increasing showers through the morning, a slight chance
of a few thunderstorms, into the afternoon, breezy to gusty west
winds, and predominately borderline MVFR/VFR cigs. Ceilings will
predominately range from 3000 to 5000 ft though intermittent cigs
may lower down to 2500 ft range into the sunrise hours. Wet
runways from showers possible. Borderline LLWS across the North
Bay with winds at 2000 ft at or around 30-35kt. Improving
conditions after 03-05Z as shower activity dwindles and cigs lift
and scatter out. Peak gusts 25-30kt out of the west this morning
and into the afternoon.
Vicinity of KSFO...Borderline VFR/MVFR cigs, SW winds will veer
towards the W this morning, with sustained speeds 14-18kt and
gusts 22-30kt. On/off showers through the morning and into the
afternoon may bring wet runways. Improving conditions after 04Z.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Borderline VFR/MVFR cigs, SW winds will
veer towards the W this morning, with sustained speeds 08-15kt and
gusts 18-28kt. Some passing showers this morning and early
afternoon. Improving conditions after 04Z.
&&
.MARINE...as of 04:59 AM PDT Thursday...Isolated thunderstorms
possible across the waters through the early afternoon. Winds will
veer from SW towards the W and increase through the day. The
sternest winds are anticipated in the outer waters north of Point
Reyes where borderline gale force sustained winds and locally
stronger gusts are expected. Winds then weaken and continue to
veer towards the NW tonight into Friday. Winds then back towards
the S and increase ahead of a different approaching system later
Saturday. These winds will generate steep fresh swell. A light
longer period southerly swell will be mixed in.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 PM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...SF Bay from 9 AM
SCA...Mry Bay from 9 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
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397
FXUS66 KMTR 161200 CCA
AFDMTR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
459 AM PDT Thu May 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled weather conditions will persist through the
first half of Thursday resulting in widespread rainfall and the
potential for thunderstorms. After a break Thursday night into
Friday, another storm system will move through the region Saturday
into early Sunday morning. Wet and unsettled conditions may
potentially continue into next week as well.
&&
.DISCUSSION...as of 03:02 AM PDT Thursday...On Wednesday a storm
system brought moderate to heavy rain and gusty winds to the
region. Many locations around the Bay Area received a decent
amount of rainfall in one day for the month of May. While not
officially climate stations a few notable locations recorded
unofficial daily records: Venado hit 5" (old 1.08" in 2000), Santa
Rosa Airport 2.1" (old 0.29" in 2011) and Oakland Airport 0.41"
(old 0.31" in 2000). Needless to say the much hyped anomalously
wet May system did pretty well.
Latest surface analysis indicates the cold front is just about
through the entire forecast area as of 2:30 AM. There are still a
few scattered showers per KMUX radar imagery, but the bulk of the
moisture and widespread rainfall have moved east with the cold
front. It's not completely over though. The surface low pressure
and upper level low still have to move through the region today
and early tonight. Latest models move the low across NorCal this
afternoon/evening. As a result, scattered showers will be possible
through early Friday. Rainfall amounts will be much less than the
Wednesday frontal passage. Totals will be highest across the North
Bay Mountains with 1-2.5", Coastal Mts 0.5-1", North Bay Valleys
0.25-0.75", and 0.1-0.5" elsewhere. The chance(15%) for
thunderstorms still exists today with the passing low. SPC has
most of the forecast area in a general mention for at least some
thunderstorms. As usual, the Central Valley has a greater chance
for thunderstorms.
High pressure will gradually build over the region Thursday night
into Friday allowing for a brief break in the action. Temperatures
may warm slightly on Friday as well. The ridge slides eastward on
Friday night as another system takes aim at the Bay Area on
Saturday and Sunday. Rain chances return early Saturday across the
North Bay before spreading southward through the day. Not as much
rainfall as the Wednesday system, but another good push of
moisture for May. Atmospheric River guidance suggests high enough
IVT values for a weak AR on Saturday. Ensemble guidance also
shows another round of anomalous height falls over the weekend
with the passing low. Thunderstorm chances also return for Sunday
night into Monday with the passing upper low.
Another break in the action early Tuesday, but medium range models
show active weather continues the middle of next week with
additional lows dropping down the CA Coast. Stay tuned...
Lastly, the seven day rainfall forecast continues to indicate
that a large portion of CA is on track to receive 150-200% of the
monthly rainfall.
&&
.AVIATION...as of 04:50 AM PDT Thursday...Post frontal environment
will bring increasing showers through the morning, a slight chance
of a few thunderstorms, into the afternoon, breezy to gusty west
winds, and predominately borderline MVFR/VFR cigs. Ceilings will
predominately range from 3000 to 5000 ft though intermittent cigs
may lower down to 2500 ft range into the sunrise hours. Wet
runways from showers possible. Borderline LLWS across the North
Bay with winds at 2000 ft at or around 30-35kt. Improving
conditions after 03-05Z as shower activity dwindles and cigs lift
and scatter out. Peak gusts 25-30kt out of the west this morning
and into the afternoon.
Vicinity of KSFO...Borderline VFR/MVFR cigs, SW winds will veer
towards the W this morning, with sustained speeds 14-18kt and
gusts 22-30kt. On/off showers through the morning and into the
afternoon may bring wet runways. Improving conditions after 04Z.
SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.
Monterey Bay Terminals...Borderline VFR/MVFR cigs, SW winds will
veer towards the W this morning, with sustained speeds 08-15kt and
gusts 18-28kt. Some passing showers this morning and early
afternoon. Improving conditions after 04Z.
&&
.MARINE...as of 04:59 AM PDT Thursday...Isolated thunderstorms
possible across the waters through the early afternoon. Winds will
veer from SW towards the W and increase through the day. The
strongest winds are anticipated in the outer waters north of Point
Reyes where borderline gale force sustained winds and locally
stronger gusts are expected. Winds then weaken and continue to veer
towards the NW tonight into Friday. Winds then back towards the S
and increase ahead of a different approaching system later Saturday.
These winds will generate steep fresh swell. A light longer period
southerly swell will be mixed in.
&&
.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.Tday...SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm
SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm
GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 PM
SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 3 PM
SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm
SCA...SF Bay from 9 AM
SCA...Mry Bay from 9 AM
&&
$$
PUBLIC FORECAST: MM
AVIATION: DRP
MARINE: DRP
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Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at:
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