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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2003-05-10 16:41 UTC
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043 ACUS11 KWNS 101641 SWOMCD SPC MCD 101641 VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-101845- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0910 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY/SRN WV...NERN TN/NWRN NC AND SWRN VA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 101641Z - 101845Z A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 10/18Z. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE/SPEED MAX MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. INCREASING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY OVER ERN KY/FAR SWRN VA AND SRN WV AS STRONG VERTICAL MOTION MOVES EWD INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS /50-60 KTS/ WILL PRODUCE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...GIVEN MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG. SEVERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MORE CONDITIONAL OVER NERN TN/NWRN NC...WHERE WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN PRESENT...POSSIBLY INHIBITING DEEP CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY THREAT...BUT LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY LONG LIVED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ..CROSBIE.. 05/10/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK... 37498429 38138315 37117921 36257962 35868317