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PIL:
Start UTC Date @0z:
End UTC Date @0z:
842 
ACUS11 KWNS 091004
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091004 
OHZ000-INZ000-091130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0874
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0504 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IND/WRN OH

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 316...

VALID 091004Z - 091130Z

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUES ACROSS
WW0315.

REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION
OCCURRING ACROSS WW0315 TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDED
FROM BMI EWD TO AROUND MIE AND THEN SEWD TO HTS. 3-4MB/2HR PRESSURE
FALLS OBSERVED IN LATEST MESOANALYSIS OVER E-CNTRL IND INTO W-CNTRL
OH IS LIKELY INDICATIVE OF STRONG WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURRING
OVER SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE ALONG 60-65KT SWLY LLJ /EVIDENT ON PLAN
VIEW PROFILER/VWP NETWORK/.

RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AIRMASS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A SHALLOW
BOUNDARY-LAYER INVERSION EXISTS N OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY
ALLOWING THE STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS TO REACH THE GROUND AS EVIDENCED
BY THE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE REPORTS OVER IND. ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS
ABOVE THIS SHALLOW INVERSION REMAINS ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE WITH
MUCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG...STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS
PRIMARILY OVER OH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.


..MEAD.. 05/09/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...

39868693 40328692 40938690 41238691 41418691 41438685
41238549 41128421 41018316 40938259 40938244 40918238
40588239 39868240 39398241 39168240 39078239 39048245
39168347 39368485 39478595 39578673 39598694 39668694