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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2003-05-09 06:21 UTC
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754 ACUS11 KWNS 090622 SWOMCD SPC MCD 090621 OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-090745- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0872 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0121 AM CDT FRI MAY 09 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...IND/NRN KY/WRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 090621Z - 090745Z THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW WILL BE REQUIRED SOON. REGIONAL RADAR DATA INDICATE A LARGE CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING ISOLATED LARGE HAIL OVER NRN/CNTRL IL MOVING ENEWD AT AROUND 60KTS. GIVEN THE CURRENT DIRECTION/SPEED...THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE TSTMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF WW0315 WITHIN THE NEXT HALF HOUR. CURRENT PROFILER/VWP AND RUC ANALYSES SUGGEST STRONG...LOW-LEVEL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IS IN PROGRESS ALONG 50-60KT LLJ AXIS TO THE N OF SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS IND ATTM. CONCENTRATED AREA OF PRESSURE FALLS CURRENTLY NOTED ACROSS IL IS LIKELY A PRODUCT OF THIS WAA REGIME AS WELL AS DYNAMIC FORCING AHEAD OF INTENSE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO IA. THIS DYNAMIC COOLING ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST/THERMAL ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS ACROSS IND INTO NRN KY AND WRN OH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS LLJ CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD. SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL/SPEED SHEAR THROUGH ELEVATED BUOYANCY PROFILE WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PRIMARILY LARGE HAIL. A NEW WW WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE HOUR TO THE E AND S OF WW0315. ..MEAD.. 05/09/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT... 39118736 39968731 40918708 41498630 41278483 40378353 39068340 38938465 38598667 38578733