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222 
ACUS11 KWNS 071447
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071447 
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-071645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 AM CDT WED MAY 07 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN LA/WRN-NCNTRL MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 282...

VALID 071447Z - 071645Z

MCS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS MS/LA/TN WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A THREAT
FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.

HEAVY RAIN IN THE NERN PART OF WW 282 HAS WORKED THE AIR MASS OVER
AND THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED THERE. HOWEVER...IN THE SRN
PART OF THE WW AND ACROSS NRN LA AND MS...THE AIR REMAINS
UNDISTURBED WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. THE INSTABILITY
AXIS EXTENDED FROM ERN TX NEWD THROUGH NRN LA AND CNTRL MS. THE
CURRENT LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ESEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 KT COUPLED WITH THE MODERATE
INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE MULTICELLS. WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE MAXIMIZED WITH CELLS THAT MOVE PARALLEL TO
THE WLY UPPER-FLOW. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED S OF THE CURRENT WATCH
BEFORE SCHEDULE EXPIRATION AT 16Z.

..BROYLES.. 05/07/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

32879281 32939162 33209067 33619000 34098946 34168902
34138836 33668847 32168953 31459037 31259159 31349340
32209335 32829293