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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWOMCD Product Timestamp: 2003-05-06 22:08 UTC
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525 ACUS11 KWNS 062208 SWOMCD SPC MCD 062208 ILZ000-MOZ000-070015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0801 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0508 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003 AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL VALID 062208Z - 070015Z NEW WW WILL BE NEEDED SHORTLY. NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...AS STRONG MID/HIGH-LEVEL JET PROPAGATES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/SOUTHERN ROCKIES. IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER UPPER JET SHIFTING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...UPPER FLOW CONFIGURATION WILL FOCUS INTENSE DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW FIELD ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUING EVOLUTION OF LARGE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ON INCREASING BOW ECHO CONFIGURATION WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI...INCLUDING THE ST. LOUIS METROPOLITAN AREA AROUND 07/00Z. SOMEWHAT DRIER LOW-LEVELS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE MESO HIGH COLD POOL...WHICH WILL ADVANCE INTO VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH DEW POINTS AROUND 70 ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN ST. LOUIS AND AREAS SOUTHWARD. LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE ST. LOUIS AREA WILL PROVIDED FOCUS FOR PROPAGATION OF STRONG SUPERCELL ON LEADING OF CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. INCREASING TORNADIC THREAT AND VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS PARTS OF FRANKLIN/SOUTHWESTERN ST. LOUIS...AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. ..KERR.. 05/06/2003 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... 38729125 39169082 39308967 38848849 37658929 38139088 38279131