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277 
ACUS11 KWNS 061629
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061629 
MOZ000-KSZ000-061830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0789
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS/WRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 265...

VALID 061629Z - 061830Z

SUPERCELL ONGOING ACROSS NERN KS WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EWD AND
WILL AFFECT AREAS OF WRN MO BY 1830Z. ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WW WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY
ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO.

AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS ERN KS WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-2000 J/KG. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WAS 
NEARLY SFC BASED. ONGOING SUPERCELL IS BEING SUSTAINED BY LARGE
SCALE-ASCENT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NCNTRL KS. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS STRONG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 60 KT SUGGESTING THE
SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OR NEW
CONVECTION FARTHER S. LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WILL BE
GREATEST ALONG LEADING EDGE OF BOWING STRUCTURES WITH TORNADO
POTENTIAL HIGHEST WERE UPDRAFTS AND BOUNDARIES INTERSECT. WW WILL BE
ISSUED ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO SHORTLY.

..BROYLES.. 05/06/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

37119608 39279624 39659399 38989273 37219302