National Weather Service Raw Text Product

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PIL:
Start UTC Date @0z:
End UTC Date @0z:
111 
ACUS11 KWNS 061533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061532 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-061730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...E OK/NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061532Z - 061730Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN OK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/FAR NWRN AR.

STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ENE OF A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL OK.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 70S S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 15Z
WERE ALREADY AROUND 80. MID-LEVEL JET WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF 
DRYER AIR CONTAINED STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KG...WHILE SFC
HEATING IS INCREASING INSTABILITY. MLCAPE VALUES RANGED BETWEEN 3000
AND 4000 J/KG ACROSS ERN OK. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION APPEARS
LIKELY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 55 KT SUGGEST STORMS WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND OR DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR WILL MAKE A FEW
TORNADOES LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY BY 19Z.

..BROYLES.. 05/06/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34089575 34329663 35529659 36299651 36729606 36919562
36919485 36849414 36399372 35069397 34159455 
000 
ACUS11 KWNS 061533
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061532 
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-061730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0787
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1032 AM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...E OK/NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 061532Z - 061730Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS ERN OK BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR TORNADOES. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
BY LATE AFTERNOON. WW MAY BE NECESSARY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN OK/FAR NWRN AR.

STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED ENE OF A SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL OK.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOWER 70S S OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES AT 15Z
WERE ALREADY AROUND 80. MID-LEVEL JET WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF 
DRYER AIR CONTAINED STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 C/KG...WHILE SFC
HEATING IS INCREASING INSTABILITY. MLCAPE VALUES RANGED BETWEEN 3000
AND 4000 J/KG ACROSS ERN OK. RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION APPEARS
LIKELY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OF 55 KT SUGGEST STORMS WILL BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND OR DAMAGING WINDS. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL JET ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN AR WILL MAKE A FEW
TORNADOES LIKELY ACROSS ERN OK THIS AFTERNOON. WW WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY BY 19Z.

..BROYLES.. 05/06/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34089575 34329663 35529659 36299651 36729606 36919562
36919485 36849414 36399372 35069397 34159455