National Weather Service Raw Text Product

817 
ACUS11 KWNS 041519
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041519 
KSZ000-041715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1019 AM CDT SUN MAY 04 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 041519Z - 041715Z

AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBILITY OF WW...WHICH COULD BECOME
NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS.

INCREASINGLY CYCLONIC MID/UPPER FLOW FIELD PROGGED BY MODELS AT MID
DAY ACROSS KANSAS HAS BECOMING INCREASINGLY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER
VAPOR LOOPS...WITH SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO DEEPEN SOUTH OF
HASTINGS NEB.  WARM FRONT CURVES EAST OF LOW ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO THE TOPEKA KS AND JOPLIN MO AREAS.  SURFACE
DRY LINE TRAILS SOUTH OF LOW INTO AREAS EAST OF DODGE CITY...BUT
LIKELY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING...DOWNWARD MIXING OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES. 
MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS IS HEATING
THROUGH THE 70S.  

GIVEN PRESENCE OF STRONG CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND EVOLUTION OF
MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000 TO 3000 J/KG...POTENTIAL FOR RAPID
INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS HIGH.  WHILE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
CONTINUES TO EVOLVE FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY...BEST POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE/NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 18Z APPEARS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF WARM FRONT
NEAR TOPEKA.  ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO THEN CONTINUE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD ALONG DRY LINE...WHICH SHOULD SURGE INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST
OF WICHITA BY 21Z.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE ALREADY STRONG AND
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH THREAT FOR TORNADOES INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

..KERR.. 05/04/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...

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