National Weather Service Raw Text Product

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PIL:
Start UTC Date @0z:
End UTC Date @0z:
000 
ACUS11 KWNS 102326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102326 
ARZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-KYZ000-110130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...WEST AND MIDDLE TN...SRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 746...

VALID 102326Z - 110130Z

---VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO UNFOLDING WITH THREAT OF LONG TRACK
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES---


SERIES OF SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE MOVING
250/40 KNOTS.  AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS AREA WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  OKOLONA MS PROFILER HAS SHOWN 500 MB
WINDS OF 80-85 KNOTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
HUNTSVILLE/NASHVILLE VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
20-30 KNOTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.


IN ENVIRONMENTS LIKE THIS WITH EXCESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE
SUPERCELLS OFTEN TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO TO ESTABLISH STRONG LOW
LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADO THREAT.  HOWEVER...ONCE TORNADOGENESIS
BEGINS...LONG TRACK POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH.


TRAILING SQUALL LINE JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ALSO HAS NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.

..CRAVEN.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

37308659 37278387 36128492 34978597 35008862 34979127
36129029 37278932 
303 
ACUS11 KWNS 102326
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102326 
ARZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-KYZ000-110130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2176
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST SUN NOV 10 2002

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...NERN AR...WEST AND MIDDLE TN...SRN KY

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 746...

VALID 102326Z - 110130Z

---VERY DANGEROUS SCENARIO UNFOLDING WITH THREAT OF LONG TRACK
STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES---


SERIES OF SUPERCELLS OVER SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE ARE MOVING
250/40 KNOTS.  AIRMASS IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS AREA WITH
MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  OKOLONA MS PROFILER HAS SHOWN 500 MB
WINDS OF 80-85 KNOTS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
HUNTSVILLE/NASHVILLE VAD WIND PROFILES SUGGEST 0-1 KM SHEAR OF
20-30 KNOTS AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2.


IN ENVIRONMENTS LIKE THIS WITH EXCESSIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE
SUPERCELLS OFTEN TAKE AN HOUR OR TWO TO ESTABLISH STRONG LOW
LEVEL ROTATION AND TORNADO THREAT.  HOWEVER...ONCE TORNADOGENESIS
BEGINS...LONG TRACK POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH.


TRAILING SQUALL LINE JUST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ALSO HAS NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.  THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING.

..CRAVEN.. 11/10/2002

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

37308659 37278387 36128492 34978597 35008862 34979127
36129029 37278932