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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY1 Product Timestamp: 2002-11-10 19:31 UTC
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876 ACUS01 KWNS 101931 SWODY1 SPC AC 101927 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PART OF KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W LUL 25 NE HEZ 45 S GLH 35 SSW PAH 25 SW EVV 15 WNW LEX 35 WNW JKL 25 S LOZ 30 W RMG 35 W LUL. SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...EASTERN TENNESSEE ...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ATL 15 ENE SEM 35 NNE MSY 25 NNW LFT 40 NNW ESF CGI 25 ENE MTO 35 NNE HUF 10 NE IND 30 WNW HTS 20 NNW 5I3 40 W ATL. SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BUF BFD 25 SE AOO 30 W DAN 15 NW ABY 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 40 SSE LCH 20 N POE 15 ENE CGX 30 N GRR 70 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 45 S SHV 40 WSW ELD 60 SW ARG MMO 15 NE JVL 25 N VOK 25 SSE IWD 40 NE CMX ...CONT... 15 NE MSS GFL 20 NNE EEN 20 N HUL ...CONT... DAB 15 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 35 SSE SEA 40 ESE DLS 35 W BKE 15 N 27U 30 E COD 30 ENE CPR 30 SE LBL 20 NW CDS 25 SSE TCC 35 ENE GUP 60 SE LMT 25 N ACV. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INTO SOUTH- EASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE MAXIMA CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. ...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE/MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINING THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM LOUISIANA NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. THE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE. OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED DATA SUGGEST SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDINGS IN THE HIGH RISK AREA SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A CAP...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD BREAK THE CAP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS SHOW STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH UP TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FLOW HAS LARGELY BEEN UNIDIRECTIONAL...OR NEARLY SO ...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL BACKING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED INTO A LINE...AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE STRONG FORCING BREAKS THE CAP. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME LIKELY PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OR SPEEDS...AS WELL AS HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...AND SOME COULD BE STRONG. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THE STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ..REHBEIN.. 11/10/02
000 ACUS01 KWNS 101931 SWODY1 SPC AC 101927 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 102000Z - 111200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER A LARGE PART OF KENTUCKY...TENNESSEE...NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W LUL 25 NE HEZ 45 S GLH 35 SSW PAH 25 SW EVV 15 WNW LEX 35 WNW JKL 25 S LOZ 30 W RMG 35 W LUL. SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...EASTERN ARKANSAS...SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...EASTERN TENNESSEE ...CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND NORTHWEST GEORGIA. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W ATL 15 ENE SEM 35 NNE MSY 25 NNW LFT 40 NNW ESF CGI 25 ENE MTO 35 NNE HUF 10 NE IND 30 WNW HTS 20 NNW 5I3 40 W ATL. SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW BUF BFD 25 SE AOO 30 W DAN 15 NW ABY 30 SSE CEW ...CONT... 40 SSE LCH 20 N POE 15 ENE CGX 30 N GRR 70 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE BPT 45 S SHV 40 WSW ELD 60 SW ARG MMO 15 NE JVL 25 N VOK 25 SSE IWD 40 NE CMX ...CONT... 15 NE MSS GFL 20 NNE EEN 20 N HUL ...CONT... DAB 15 WNW PIE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 35 SSE SEA 40 ESE DLS 35 W BKE 15 N 27U 30 E COD 30 ENE CPR 30 SE LBL 20 NW CDS 25 SSE TCC 35 ENE GUP 60 SE LMT 25 N ACV. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF ONTARIO...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...INTO SOUTH- EASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL SHORTWAVE MAXIMA CONTINUE TO MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. ...LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE/MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS... WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EVENT CONTINUES TO UNFOLD ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS MAINTAINING THE TRANSPORT OF GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CUMULUS FROM LOUISIANA NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE AND KENTUCKY. THE AIR MASS IN THE WARM SECTOR IS BECOMING MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE. OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED DATA SUGGEST SURFACE BASED CAPES ARE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDINGS IN THE HIGH RISK AREA SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A CAP...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HEATING COMBINED WITH FORCING WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND FRONT SHOULD BREAK THE CAP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE HIGH AND MODERATE RISK AREAS SHOW STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW...WITH UP TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FLOW HAS LARGELY BEEN UNIDIRECTIONAL...OR NEARLY SO ...BUT SOME LOW LEVEL BACKING WILL LIKELY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THIS WILL CREATE AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THE ACTIVITY HAS EVOLVED INTO A LINE...AND SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED SEVERE WIND AND HAIL. THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS THE STRONG FORCING BREAKS THE CAP. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...SOME LIKELY PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE OR SPEEDS...AS WELL AS HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. ISOLATED STORMS AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...AND SOME COULD BE STRONG. AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...THE ACTIVITY SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE AS THE STORMS MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. ..REHBEIN.. 11/10/02