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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY1 Product Timestamp: 2002-11-10 16:39 UTC
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000 ACUS01 KWNS 101639 SWODY1 SPC AC 101632 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF KY...TN...NW AL...AND NRN/WRN MS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE TCL 35 W LUL 25 NE HEZ 45 S GLH MEM 35 SSW PAH 25 SW EVV 30 WSW SDF 15 WNW LEX 35 WNW JKL 25 S LOZ 30 W RMG 15 SSE TCL. SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SE IL...SRN INDIANA...NRN/ERN KY...NW GA...CENTRAL AL...SRN MS...AND NE LA. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CHA 40 W ATL 15 ENE SEM 35 NNE MSY 25 NNW LFT 40 NNW ESF 40 WSW MEM CGI MVN 25 ENE MTO 35 NNE HUF 10 NE IND 50 NW LUK 20 ESE LUK 30 WNW HTS 20 NNW 5I3 50 NE TYS 45 ESE CHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W DAN 15 NW ABY 45 WSW BVE 45 SSE LCH 20 N POE 45 E SHV 40 ENE ELD 50 SW JBR 40 W MDH DEC 55 ESE MMO SBN 10 NE TOL 25 SW ERI BFD 25 SE AOO 30 W DAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 15 WNW PIE ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 45 S SHV 40 WSW ELD 60 SW ARG 35 ENE UNO 30 SSW SPI MMO 15 NE JVL 25 N VOK 55 W RHI 15 N IWD ...CONT... 15 NE MSS GFL 20 NNE EEN 20 N HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 35 SSE SEA 40 ESE DLS 35 W BKE 40 S S80 15 N 27U 30 NNW WEY 30 E COD 30 ENE CPR 40 SSW BFF 40 WSW GLD 30 SE LBL 20 NW CDS 25 SSE TCC 35 ENE GUP 35 NW MLF 35 WSW BAM 60 SE LMT 25 N ACV. -- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM SRN IL/INDIANA SWD ACROSS KY/TN TO NW AL AND NRN/WRN MS -- 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE 100-150 KT WLY FLOW BETWEEN 500 AND 250 MB ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...WITH THE NOSE OF THE STRONG JET EXTENDING ENEWD TO AR/MO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS OF MID MORNING...AND THIS SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE E/ENEWD TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP LOW ACROSS WI WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SW ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC BY TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES E/SEWD ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WILL COMBINE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND JET MAX TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OH/MS/TN VALLEYS. ...KY/TN/NW AL/NRN AND CENTRAL MS... IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG/ AND VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-60 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2/ WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT FROM KY/TN SSWD TO THE GULF COAST. EXPECT STORMS TO FORM BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN THE S/SE IL AREA...AND THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN INDIANA AND WRN KY. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BUILD SWD ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM WRN TN ACROSS NW MS TO NRN LA. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS AL. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 18Z. ..THOMPSON.. 11/10/02
594 ACUS01 KWNS 101639 SWODY1 SPC AC 101632 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 101630Z - 111200Z THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF KY...TN...NW AL...AND NRN/WRN MS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE TCL 35 W LUL 25 NE HEZ 45 S GLH MEM 35 SSW PAH 25 SW EVV 30 WSW SDF 15 WNW LEX 35 WNW JKL 25 S LOZ 30 W RMG 15 SSE TCL. SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR SE IL...SRN INDIANA...NRN/ERN KY...NW GA...CENTRAL AL...SRN MS...AND NE LA. THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE CHA 40 W ATL 15 ENE SEM 35 NNE MSY 25 NNW LFT 40 NNW ESF 40 WSW MEM CGI MVN 25 ENE MTO 35 NNE HUF 10 NE IND 50 NW LUK 20 ESE LUK 30 WNW HTS 20 NNW 5I3 50 NE TYS 45 ESE CHA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W DAN 15 NW ABY 45 WSW BVE 45 SSE LCH 20 N POE 45 E SHV 40 ENE ELD 50 SW JBR 40 W MDH DEC 55 ESE MMO SBN 10 NE TOL 25 SW ERI BFD 25 SE AOO 30 W DAN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DAB 15 WNW PIE ...CONT... 20 SE BPT 45 S SHV 40 WSW ELD 60 SW ARG 35 ENE UNO 30 SSW SPI MMO 15 NE JVL 25 N VOK 55 W RHI 15 N IWD ...CONT... 15 NE MSS GFL 20 NNE EEN 20 N HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE BLI 35 SSE SEA 40 ESE DLS 35 W BKE 40 S S80 15 N 27U 30 NNW WEY 30 E COD 30 ENE CPR 40 SSW BFF 40 WSW GLD 30 SE LBL 20 NW CDS 25 SSE TCC 35 ENE GUP 35 NW MLF 35 WSW BAM 60 SE LMT 25 N ACV. -- SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM SRN IL/INDIANA SWD ACROSS KY/TN TO NW AL AND NRN/WRN MS -- 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES INDICATE 100-150 KT WLY FLOW BETWEEN 500 AND 250 MB ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES...WITH THE NOSE OF THE STRONG JET EXTENDING ENEWD TO AR/MO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS AS OF MID MORNING...AND THIS SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE E/ENEWD TO THE MS/OH VALLEYS BY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A DEEP LOW ACROSS WI WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO SW ONTARIO AND WRN QUEBEC BY TONIGHT...WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES E/SEWD ACROSS THE MS/OH VALLEYS. RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WILL COMBINE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND JET MAX TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE OH/MS/TN VALLEYS. ...KY/TN/NW AL/NRN AND CENTRAL MS... IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-3000 J/KG/ AND VERTICAL SHEAR /0-6 KM SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-60 KT AND 0-3 KM SRH OF 200-400 M2/S2/ WILL BE PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT FROM KY/TN SSWD TO THE GULF COAST. EXPECT STORMS TO FORM BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE COLD FRONT IN THE S/SE IL AREA...AND THEN SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN INDIANA AND WRN KY. CONVECTION WILL ALSO BUILD SWD ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM WRN TN ACROSS NW MS TO NRN LA. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO FORM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS AL. GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR/INSTABILITY AND MOIST LOW LEVELS...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL. A PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 18Z. ..THOMPSON.. 11/10/02