National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
ACUS01 KWNS 100106
SWODY1
SPC AC 100103

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 100100Z - 101200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SW LIT 30 NW ARG 35 NNW SLO 20 NW HUF 30 E IND 10 SSE LUK
50 WSW LOZ 10 N HSV 25 NNE CBM 30 NW GWO 20 SW LIT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNE IGM 35 W SGU
45 NW MLF 15 WSW CNY 20 NNE GUC 25 W TAD 25 SE LVS 30 E INW
50 NNE IGM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE CLM
45 NNW PDX 35 N MFR 30 N RBL 50 NW SAC 50 NW SFO.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MOB 20 NE LUL
35 SSW GLH 40 NNE TXK 20 SW PIA 45 W JVL 25 ESE CWA 50 E MQT
...CONT... 25 WNW CLE 25 W UNI 60 SSE TYS 25 SSW CAE 25 SW CRE
...CONT... 10 NE VRB 30 NW FMY.

...SYNOPSIS...

LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO ARKANSAS IS FORECAST TO LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA OVERNIGHT.  NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE
TROUGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL SPREAD TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY.  SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONSOLIDATE OVER MINNESOTA/IOWA
AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARD MICHIGAN.  MEANWHILE...VERY STRONG
UPPER WIND MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE INLAND FROM NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA.   

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...

00Z LZK SOUNDING WAS RATHER POTENT...WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 1400
J/KG AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES.  VAD WIND
PROFILE FROM MEMPHIS WAS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
TORNADOES...WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 40 KNOTS...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 65
KNOTS...AND 0-3 KM SRH OF ABOUT 850 M2/S2.  REFERENCE TORNADO WATCH
740.  

ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY
AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT.  GIVEN
RAPID RETURN OF RICH GULF MOISTURE...SEVERE THREAT MAY PERSIST MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH THREAT OF WIND DAMAGE AND TORNADOES.  

...FOUR CORNERS...

CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER WITH UPSTREAM
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE EVENING AS IT TRACKS
EASTWARD.

...WASHINGTON/OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COASTLINES... 
 
500 MB TEMPERATURES OF -26 TO -28 C WERE OBSERVED ON CYCLONIC SIDE
OF JET ALONG THE WA/OR COAST AT 00Z.  THUS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST. 

..CRAVEN.. 11/10/02