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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY3 Product Timestamp: 2002-11-07 09:43 UTC
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000 ACUS03 KWNS 070943 SWODY3 SPC AC 070900 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS. VALID 091200-101200 THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEYS. POWERFUL WLY PAC JET PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS WRN HALF OF CONUS ON DY3. AT THE SAME TIME ZONAL FLOW BEGINS AMPLIFICATION AS INCREASING TROUGHING OCCURS OVER THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS WITH CORRESPONDING FLAT RIDGE BUILDING OFF W COAST. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS LEE OF ROCKIES RESULT IN RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WRN GULF INTO SCENTRAL U.S. CURRENT COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO SRN GULF ATTM...THUS ONLY MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO CENTRAL U.S. ON DY3. HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL RESULT IN 60 DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE WESTERN OH/MID MS VALLEY BY EVENING. MODELS MOVE INITIAL S/WV TROUGH RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS PLAINS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AMPLIFYING S/W TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH A RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING FIRST TROUGH INTO WRN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT...40-50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF OH VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR NOV...7-8C/KM...WILL SPREAD EWD IN STRONG MID LEVEL WLYS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY. RESULT WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TO SUPPORT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO OH VALLEY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...40-50KT FROM SFC-6KM...COUPLED WITH A VEERING PROFILE IN LOWEST 1 KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL ROTATING STORMS. CAP WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP VICINITY MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF S/W TROUGH. KINEMATICS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY MID MS VALLEY AS THE S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT 500 MB WIND MAX ROTATE ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE THE STORMS WILL BE. ..HALES.. 11/07/02
591 ACUS03 KWNS 070943 SWODY3 SPC AC 070900 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS. VALID 091200-101200 THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN OHIO VALLEYS. POWERFUL WLY PAC JET PROGRESSES RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS WRN HALF OF CONUS ON DY3. AT THE SAME TIME ZONAL FLOW BEGINS AMPLIFICATION AS INCREASING TROUGHING OCCURS OVER THE ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS WITH CORRESPONDING FLAT RIDGE BUILDING OFF W COAST. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS LEE OF ROCKIES RESULT IN RAPID RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM WRN GULF INTO SCENTRAL U.S. CURRENT COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED TO SRN GULF ATTM...THUS ONLY MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL MAKE IT BACK INTO CENTRAL U.S. ON DY3. HOWEVER THIS WILL STILL RESULT IN 60 DEWPOINTS REACHING INTO THE WESTERN OH/MID MS VALLEY BY EVENING. MODELS MOVE INITIAL S/WV TROUGH RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS PLAINS SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AMPLIFYING S/W TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CENTRAL ROCKIES. WITH A RATHER DEEP SURFACE LOW ACCOMPANYING FIRST TROUGH INTO WRN GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY NIGHT...40-50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD GULF MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF OH VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES FOR NOV...7-8C/KM...WILL SPREAD EWD IN STRONG MID LEVEL WLYS ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY. RESULT WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TO SUPPORT ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO OH VALLEY. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...40-50KT FROM SFC-6KM...COUPLED WITH A VEERING PROFILE IN LOWEST 1 KM WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL ROTATING STORMS. CAP WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP VICINITY MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF S/W TROUGH. KINEMATICS WILL BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE SATURDAY MID MS VALLEY AS THE S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT 500 MB WIND MAX ROTATE ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY INTO OH VALLEY OVERNIGHT. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY ATTM AS TO HOW WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE THE STORMS WILL BE. ..HALES.. 11/07/02