National Weather Service Raw Text Product

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PIL:
Start UTC Date @0z:
End UTC Date @0z:
000
ACUS01 KWNS 280109
SWODY1
SPC AC 280104

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WEST
TENNESSEE...ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHERN ILLLINOIS...MOST OF
INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN OHIO TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE MKL 15 WSW MEM 40 WNW MEM 15 SE POF 50
NE UNO 10 E SGF 20 SSW IRK 35 SW OTM 20 N MLI 20 SSE CGX 10 SW FDY
35 E DAY 10 SE LEX 45 SE MKL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 W ERI 20 NW MGW 15 ENE 5I3 30 SE CSV 45 NW BHM 30 SSW GLH
15 SE ELD 30 SSE PGO 30 NNW SGF 25 SW IRK 55 WNW LWD 40 SSW FOD
30 W LNR 25 NNE MKE 45 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE TPH 25 S NFL
80 S BNO 50 SSE BOI 35 SSE LND 25 SSW FCL 40 E GUC 60 SE U24
50 ESE TPH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SAV 40 E 0A8
40 SSW ELD 30 SSW PGO 20 WSW FYV 40 SSE P35 40 N FNB 40 N OMA
10 NNW RST 20 SSW OSC ...CONT... 25 WNW BUF 30 SE ELM 20 SSW JFK.

---SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AND
SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT---

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA...

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING FROM MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 70 KNOTS...AND 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 30-50 KNOTS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG AND PERHAPS
LONG TRACK TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED NATURE OF SUPERCELLS AT
THIS TIME PRECLUDES UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK.

18Z ETA CONTINUES TREND OF EARLIER MODELS WITH AGGRESSIVE
DESTABILIZATION UP THE OHIO VALLEY DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.

HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO ADVECTION
UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...AND 60 KNOT 850
MB JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR TOWARD SOUTHERN
INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE TONIGHT.  

THUS...EXPECT AXIS FROM MEMPHIS AREA TO NEAR CINCINNATI TO SHOW
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  21Z RUC AND TO LESSER EXTEND 18Z AVN/ETA
SHOW SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG UVVS/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
POSSIBILITY FOR BOTH ISOLATED TORNADIC STORMS AND BOW ECHOES WITH
WIND DAMAGE EXISTS GIVEN DEGREE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING.    
 
..CRAVEN.. 04/28/02
896 
ACUS01 KWNS 280109
SWODY1
SPC AC 280104

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVERNIGHT FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST
IOWA...EASTERN MISSOURI...EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WEST
TENNESSEE...ALL BUT EXTREME NORTHERN ILLLINOIS...MOST OF
INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND WESTERN OHIO TO THE
RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE MKL 15 WSW MEM 40 WNW MEM 15 SE POF 50
NE UNO 10 E SGF 20 SSW IRK 35 SW OTM 20 N MLI 20 SSE CGX 10 SW FDY
35 E DAY 10 SE LEX 45 SE MKL.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 W ERI 20 NW MGW 15 ENE 5I3 30 SE CSV 45 NW BHM 30 SSW GLH
15 SE ELD 30 SSE PGO 30 NNW SGF 25 SW IRK 55 WNW LWD 40 SSW FOD
30 W LNR 25 NNE MKE 45 NNE MTC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE TPH 25 S NFL
80 S BNO 50 SSE BOI 35 SSE LND 25 SSW FCL 40 E GUC 60 SE U24
50 ESE TPH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE SAV 40 E 0A8
40 SSW ELD 30 SSW PGO 20 WSW FYV 40 SSE P35 40 N FNB 40 N OMA
10 NNW RST 20 SSW OSC ...CONT... 25 WNW BUF 30 SE ELM 20 SSW JFK.

---SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AND
SHOULD CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT---

...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY AREA...

ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE
PUSHING FROM MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.  COMBINATION OF
MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG...0-6 KM SHEAR OF 70 KNOTS...AND 0-1 KM
SHEAR OF 30-50 KNOTS INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG AND PERHAPS
LONG TRACK TORNADOES.  HOWEVER...ISOLATED NATURE OF SUPERCELLS AT
THIS TIME PRECLUDES UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK.

18Z ETA CONTINUES TREND OF EARLIER MODELS WITH AGGRESSIVE
DESTABILIZATION UP THE OHIO VALLEY DESPITE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY.

HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE DUE TO ADVECTION
UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...AND 60 KNOT 850
MB JET SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOIST AIR TOWARD SOUTHERN
INDIANA/OHIO BY LATE TONIGHT.  

THUS...EXPECT AXIS FROM MEMPHIS AREA TO NEAR CINCINNATI TO SHOW
INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  21Z RUC AND TO LESSER EXTEND 18Z AVN/ETA
SHOW SEPARATE AREA OF STRONG UVVS/CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. 
POSSIBILITY FOR BOTH ISOLATED TORNADIC STORMS AND BOW ECHOES WITH
WIND DAMAGE EXISTS GIVEN DEGREE OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG
DYNAMIC FORCING.    
 
..CRAVEN.. 04/28/02