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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY1 Product Timestamp: 2002-04-27 16:39 UTC
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000 ACUS01 KWNS 271639 SWODY1 SPC AC 271635 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEB... EXTREME NERN KS...SRN IA...NRN/ERN MO...IL AND IND TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CID 20 ENE CGX 25 ENE SBN 15 SSW FWA 40 ESE IND 35 ESE MVN 40 NNW POF 10 WSW TBN 35 ENE MKC 30 N TOP 15 E CNK 15 NW CNK 10 NNW LNK 25 N CID. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE 15 E LEX 10 NW PBF 25 SW TXK 40 S DUA 45 WNW MLC 20 N BVO 40 SSW HLC 30 SW BBW 30 NW OSH 35 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW ACY 35 SW DCA GSO 25 NW GAD 30 SSW GLH 25 NNE LFK 20 ESE SAT 35 NW SAT 40 NNE MWL 20 NE OKC 10 SSW PNC 10 SSW COS 25 SW PUC U31 40 SSW NFL 40 ESE FAT 20 SE MER 35 WNW MFR 65 NW BNO 35 NW SUN 15 SSW WEY 25 N CYS 10 S 9V9 25 SSW MSP 35 S ANJ ...CONT... 30 NW ROC 20 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VRB 10 SW FMY ...CONT... 25 SW CTY 35 NNE VLD 15 S SAV. ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WERE LOCATED IN NWRN KS AT MID MORNING AND ARE FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NEWD INTO SRN IOWA THIS EVENING...AND THEN ENEWD TO NEAR MKE BY 28/12Z. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SWD INTO THE EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE ...WHILE A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE KS/NEB BORDER EWD INTO SRN IL. ANOTHER WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE RED RIVER AREA OF TX/OK WAS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING RAPIDLY NWD. ...KS/NEB/IA/MO/IL/IND/OH... MORNING ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING HAS PUSHED NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND INTO EXTREME SRN NEB. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO ERODING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KS. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST RESTS WITH CLOUDS CLEARING RAPID ENOUGH FOR HEATING/SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTION. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS S CENTRAL KS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS N CENTRAL KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAPID ADVECTION OF RICHER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP DEWPOINTS REACH THE LOWER 60S AND MUCAPE REACH AT LEAST 1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER WITH HEATING AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LONG HODOGRAPHS...BUT NOT MUCH CURVATURE. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION...BUT GREATEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG FORCING MAY RESULT IN A LINE TO DEVELOP AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS ERN KS/MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO IL/IND/OH/WI/MI OVERNIGHT WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS... STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AND RAPID MOTION OF UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS SRN NEB/SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RAPID CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS NEEDED FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION IF THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS TO BE REALIZED. STRONG LIFTING NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ACROSS NRN NEB/NRN IA THIS EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA THIS EVENING. ...OK/AR/EXTREME NERN TX/WRN TN... RAPID CLEARING HAS BEEN OCCURING ACROSS WRN OK/TX THIS MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK/NRN TX AS DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS NRN TX AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG INVERSION WAS PRESENT ON DFW SOUNDING AT 12Z THIS MORNING AND THIS INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. ETA SOUNDINGS DO BREAK THE CAP...THOUGH THE FORECAST WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL LIFTING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..IMY.. 04/27/02
900 ACUS01 KWNS 271639 SWODY1 SPC AC 271635 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEB... EXTREME NERN KS...SRN IA...NRN/ERN MO...IL AND IND TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CID 20 ENE CGX 25 ENE SBN 15 SSW FWA 40 ESE IND 35 ESE MVN 40 NNW POF 10 WSW TBN 35 ENE MKC 30 N TOP 15 E CNK 15 NW CNK 10 NNW LNK 25 N CID. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CLE 15 E LEX 10 NW PBF 25 SW TXK 40 S DUA 45 WNW MLC 20 N BVO 40 SSW HLC 30 SW BBW 30 NW OSH 35 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW ACY 35 SW DCA GSO 25 NW GAD 30 SSW GLH 25 NNE LFK 20 ESE SAT 35 NW SAT 40 NNE MWL 20 NE OKC 10 SSW PNC 10 SSW COS 25 SW PUC U31 40 SSW NFL 40 ESE FAT 20 SE MER 35 WNW MFR 65 NW BNO 35 NW SUN 15 SSW WEY 25 N CYS 10 S 9V9 25 SSW MSP 35 S ANJ ...CONT... 30 NW ROC 20 E NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE VRB 10 SW FMY ...CONT... 25 SW CTY 35 NNE VLD 15 S SAV. ...SYNOPSIS... INTENSE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WERE LOCATED IN NWRN KS AT MID MORNING AND ARE FORECAST TO ACCELERATE NEWD INTO SRN IOWA THIS EVENING...AND THEN ENEWD TO NEAR MKE BY 28/12Z. A DRYLINE EXTENDED SWD INTO THE EXTREME ERN TX PANHANDLE ...WHILE A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE KS/NEB BORDER EWD INTO SRN IL. ANOTHER WARM FRONT FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE RED RIVER AREA OF TX/OK WAS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS WERE ADVECTING RAPIDLY NWD. ...KS/NEB/IA/MO/IL/IND/OH... MORNING ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT STRONG MID LEVEL DRYING HAS PUSHED NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF KS AND INTO EXTREME SRN NEB. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO ERODING RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KS. UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST RESTS WITH CLOUDS CLEARING RAPID ENOUGH FOR HEATING/SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION FOR CONVECTION. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED ACROSS CENTRAL KS AND DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID 50S ACROSS S CENTRAL KS. EXPECT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING/CONVERGENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE ACROSS N CENTRAL KS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. RAPID ADVECTION OF RICHER MOISTURE SHOULD HELP DEWPOINTS REACH THE LOWER 60S AND MUCAPE REACH AT LEAST 1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ARE STRONG THROUGHOUT THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER WITH HEATING AND MIXING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN LONG HODOGRAPHS...BUT NOT MUCH CURVATURE. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG SHEAR WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME MID LEVEL ROTATION...BUT GREATEST THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRONG FORCING MAY RESULT IN A LINE TO DEVELOP AND THEN MOVE RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS ERN KS/MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO IL/IND/OH/WI/MI OVERNIGHT WITH WIND DAMAGE THE MAIN THREAT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR THE WARM FRONT AND EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW WHERE BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. THE STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WINDS... STRONG VEERING IN THE LOWEST 1 KM AND RAPID MOTION OF UPPER TROUGH SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS SRN NEB/SRN IA THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. RAPID CLEARING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS IS NEEDED FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION IF THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS TO BE REALIZED. STRONG LIFTING NORTH OF SURFACE FRONT MAY RESULT IN ELEVATED STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ACROSS NRN NEB/NRN IA THIS EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA THIS EVENING. ...OK/AR/EXTREME NERN TX/WRN TN... RAPID CLEARING HAS BEEN OCCURING ACROSS WRN OK/TX THIS MORNING AND CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK/NRN TX AS DRYING OCCURS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S ACROSS NRN TX AND SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO STRONG PRESSURE FALLS LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. STRONG INVERSION WAS PRESENT ON DFW SOUNDING AT 12Z THIS MORNING AND THIS INVERSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. ETA SOUNDINGS DO BREAK THE CAP...THOUGH THE FORECAST WARMING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL LIFTING FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 50 KT...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..IMY.. 04/27/02