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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY3 Product Timestamp: 2002-04-25 10:41 UTC
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000 ACUS03 KWNS 251041 SWODY3 SPC AC 251007 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS. VALID 271200-281200 THERE IS A RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MO/MID MS AND LWR TN VLYS. ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO WRN KS EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE INTO THE UPR MS VLY BY 12 SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NW KS TO NEAR CHI BY SUNDAY MORNING. ...LWR MO VLY... OPENING OF UPPER WAVE SHOULD ALLOW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO OVERRIDE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NE KS/SE NEB SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX /SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROBABLY IN THE UPPER 50S/...COOL AIR ALOFT /AOB MINUS 15C AT 500 MB/ AND SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE CYCLONES TRIPLE POINT...AND EWD/SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT IN NRN MO/SRN IA. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF 70+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ...THUS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE STRONGLY DIURNAL AND...THUS...SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS PREDICATED ON KS UPPER SYSTEM REMAINING MORE DISCRETE/INTENSE AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...VS. THE MORE WEAKER/FASTER SOLUTIONS OF THE AVN/ETA. THIS FAVORED SCENARIO REFLECTS RECENT HISTORY OF SIMILAR SYSTEMS AND CONTINUING DOMINANCE OF GULF OF MEXICO UPPER RIDGE. ...MID MS/LWR TN VLYS... A SEPARATE...MORE SRN...SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST OVER PARTS OF AR/SE MO/WRN TN AND KY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABLIZES REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT/WARM CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH KS UPPER TROUGH. SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY NOT BE VERY STEEP. IN ADDITION...THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE IS RATHER NEBULOUS AT THIS TIME SINCE WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION SHOULD BE HIGH WINDS AND A LITTLE HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 04/25/02
714 ACUS03 KWNS 251041 SWODY3 SPC AC 251007 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWK48 KWNS. VALID 271200-281200 THERE IS A RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MO/MID MS AND LWR TN VLYS. ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WHICH WILL EJECT NEWD INTO WRN KS EARLY SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE NEWD AS AN OPEN WAVE INTO THE UPR MS VLY BY 12 SUNDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM NW KS TO NEAR CHI BY SUNDAY MORNING. ...LWR MO VLY... OPENING OF UPPER WAVE SHOULD ALLOW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT TO OVERRIDE SURFACE CYCLONE OVER NE KS/SE NEB SATURDAY AFTERNOON. COUPLED WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX /SURFACE DEWPOINTS PROBABLY IN THE UPPER 50S/...COOL AIR ALOFT /AOB MINUS 15C AT 500 MB/ AND SUSTAINED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THE CYCLONES TRIPLE POINT...AND EWD/SEWD ALONG WARM FRONT IN NRN MO/SRN IA. GLANCING INFLUENCE OF 70+ KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS ...THUS POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE STRONGLY DIURNAL AND...THUS...SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. THE ABOVE SCENARIO IS PREDICATED ON KS UPPER SYSTEM REMAINING MORE DISCRETE/INTENSE AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF...VS. THE MORE WEAKER/FASTER SOLUTIONS OF THE AVN/ETA. THIS FAVORED SCENARIO REFLECTS RECENT HISTORY OF SIMILAR SYSTEMS AND CONTINUING DOMINANCE OF GULF OF MEXICO UPPER RIDGE. ...MID MS/LWR TN VLYS... A SEPARATE...MORE SRN...SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST OVER PARTS OF AR/SE MO/WRN TN AND KY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING DESTABLIZES REGION ALONG/AHEAD OF TRAILING COLD FRONT/WARM CONVEYOR ASSOCIATED WITH KS UPPER TROUGH. SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT FOR STRONG STORMS...BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY NOT BE VERY STEEP. IN ADDITION...THE DOMINANT CONVECTIVE MODE IS RATHER NEBULOUS AT THIS TIME SINCE WIDESPREAD WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND SATURDAY. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS REGION SHOULD BE HIGH WINDS AND A LITTLE HAIL. ..CORFIDI.. 04/25/02