National Weather Service Raw Text Product

716 
ACUS1 KMKC 240544
SWODY1
MKC AC 240543

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWBC.

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 NW ALB PHL 55 NNE RWI 25 WNW SOP 50 WNW GSO 30 ENE EKN
30 WNW ROC 30 NW ART 30 WSW SLK 25 NW ALB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW OTH 35 S EUG
50 NNE LMT 40 ENE SCK 25 SW PRB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW 7R4 30 ESE HEZ
45 NNE MEI 30 SW CHA 45 SE LOZ 15 ESE ZZV 60 NW ERI ...CONT...
50 N BML 20 NE PWM.


MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TODAY FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AS UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER LOWER MI/WRN
OH.  SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM LOW CENTER OVER SWRN
ONTARIO SSWWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AT 12Z...WITH PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING ACROSS THE RIM OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LARGE PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL ADVECT
NEWD AND OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE ERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...WHICH
WILL LIMIT HEATING AND RESULTANT LAPSE RATES IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ADVECT NWD
OUT OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND ACROSS MUCH OF PA AND NY THIS AFTERNOON
AS STRONG SLY LLJ DEVELOPS.

...VA INTO NY...
EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY FROM NRN VA INTO CENTRAL NY...HOWEVER MOISTENING BOUNDARY
LAYER AND DEEP LIFTING ALONG FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL SMALL
LINES OF CONVECTION BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON OVER WRN PA/NY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS YIELD SBCAPES FROM 500-1500 J/KG AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY BY 21Z...WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF INCREASING
CONVECTION FROM NRN VA INTO CENTRAL NY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DEEP
LAYER SHEAR FROM 45-55 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZATION INTO
CONVECTIVE LINES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS.  IN ADDITION
...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND LOW CLOUD BASES SUGGEST A FEW
TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IF AIR MASS CAN DESTABILIZE ACROSS THIS
REGION...ESPECIALLY WHERE STRONGEST SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP
FROM NRN VA INTO S-CENTRAL NY.

...SOUTHEAST...
FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT...STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO GA/SRN AL/NRN FL.  HOWEVER...
WEAK UVV FIELDS WILL PROVIDE LESS FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WITHIN
WEAKLY CAPPED AND VERY MOIST AIR MASS.  EXPECT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELLS TO FORM...THOUGH SEVERE WIND/HAIL
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED AND ISOLATED.

..EVANS.. 09/24/01