National Weather Service Raw Text Product

000 
FNUS21 KWNS 030702

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK
201 AM CDT THU AUG 03 2000
  
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PMWE98 KWNS
VALID 031200-041200
  
...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA 1 - ERN SLOPES CASCADES AND
FROM NRN CA ACROSS SERN ORE, NRN NV, ID, SWRN MT AND NWRN WY...

PRIMARY CONDITIONS:  WEAK-MODERATE MARINE PUSH/GUSTY WINDS FAVORED
AREAS ERN CASCADES AND INCREASING WINDS/VERY LOW RH ELSEWHERE

1.  MARINE PUSH... GIVEN THAT A STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
ADVANCE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, THE THERMAL
TROUGH WILL JUMP INTO ERN PARTS OF ORE/WA.  DESPITE THE LACK OF
MARINE STRATUS BUILDING UP SO FAR THIS MORNING WEST OF THE
CASCADES, WINDS SHOULD TURN ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES, PARTICULARLY
IN THE COLUMBIA GORGE.  WLY FLOW OF 20-25+ MPH COULD RESULT AND
GIVEN VERY LOW RH VALUES, FIRE DANGER WILL INCREASE.  STABLE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MARINE
PUSH.

2.  INCREASING SWLY WINDS/VERY LOW RH ELSEWHERE...AS THE UPPER
RIDGE MOVES TO NRN NM, THE BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL MOVE SWD INTO
THE NRN PARTS OF THE WRN STATES TODAY.  PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
INCREASE AS A UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST
AND PROMOTE AFTERNOON GUSTY SWLY WINDS OF 20-30+ MPH OVER A
WIDESPREAD AREA.  THIS WILL INCLUDE NRN CA, SERN ORE, NRN NV, ID,
SWRN MT AND NWRN WY.  GIVEN THE SERIOUSNESS OF THE FIRE DANGER AND
NUMEROUS LARGE WILDFIRES IN PROGRESS, HAVE UPGRADED TO AN EXTREMELY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SITUATION.
  
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREAS 2 - NERN CA, SERN ORE, NWRN NV,
CNTRL/SRN ID, SWRN/SOUTH CENTRAL MT, NWRN/NORTH CENTRAL WY...

PRIMARY CONDITIONS:  HIGH CONCENTRATION OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/BALLOON DATA FROM LAST EVENING SUGGEST THAT
ANOTHER PLUME OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IS BEGINNING TO SURGE NWD
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE.  SHORT TERM MODELS TAKE THIS MOISTURE INTO
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON.  MOREOVER, SATELLITE IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WILL ROTATE INTO SRN ID BY
THIS AFTERNOON.  CUMULUS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND GROW INTO THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE, INSTABILITY AND LIFT IN PLACE.  MOISTURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WET AS FAR NORTH AS NRN NV, BUT STORMS
SHOULD BE DRY FARTHER NORTH IN THE OUTLOOK AREA.  ERRATIC/GUSTY
WINDS COULD ALSO RESULT IN OR NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

...SYNOPSIS... 

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE OVER NRN NM BY
THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND LEAD TO INCREASING SWLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST, INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND NRN GREAT BASIN REGIONS.  IN
ADDITION TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE GIVEN THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE, DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A PROBLEM FOR
VIRTUALLY THE SAME AREAS.  FARTHER SOUTH, MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE
IN A RIBBON FROM CNTRL CA INTO NV, UT WHERE STORMS COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE EFFICIENT IN RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER,
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DRY OUT SUFFICIENTLY FOR A RETURN TO ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED DRY
STORMS OVER SRN NV, NRN AZ AND SRN UT.
  
..JPR.. 08/03/00
   
DAY1/DAY2 FIRE WEATHER TEXT/GRAPHICS OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE AT
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