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Displaying AFOS PIL: SWODY1 Product Timestamp: 1998-06-02 14:41 UTC
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779 ACUS1 KMKC 021441 SWODY1 MKC AC 021441 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O. VALID 021500Z - 031200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VA...ERN WV...ERN OH...SRN NY... PA...NJ...MD...AND DE...TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM WAL RIC LYH 40 ENE CRW 15 W ZZV CLE 15 W ERI 30 SE ROC 45 WSW ALB 20 E NEL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE SAV 45 NNW AHN 50 WSW BNA 30 SW SDF 25 WSW DAY 20 E MBS ...CONT... 15 N EFK EEN ACK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE SSI GAD MEM P02 10 NW BMI 20 E AUW MQT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW OFK 30 S EAR CYS 30 NNE RKS ENV TPH 30 NE FAT 45 NW SAC 25 SE MFR 25 SE YKM 40 ENE GEG 40 SW CTB LWT 4BQ 35 SE RAP 40 WNW OFK. CLOSED LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE NERN STATES LATER TODAY. AS THIS OCCURS...SURFACE LOW OVER NW LOWER MI WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO ONTARIO...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM NEW YORK TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PATTERN ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LEE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL PA INTO VA. MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ABOVE THE SURFACE WITH 12Z RAOB FROM PBZ INDICATING AN 850 MB DEWPOINT OF 11C. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG WITH DOWNWARD MIXING WILL ALLOW SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER ON LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURE TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S FROM CENTRAL PA SWD...WITH 70S EXPECTED IN NEW YORK. AS A RESULT MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPES REACHING 1500-2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF OH/WV BY MID AFTERNOON WITH OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS LIKELY TO FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH AS AIRMASS BECOMES UNCAPPED. WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTION INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. IF PARAMETERS EVOLVE AS ANTICIPATED...SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE EVENTS MAY OCCUR. BY LATE THIS EVENING... THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL LINE AND MOVE TOWARD THE COAST. ..VESCIO.. 06/02/98