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Displaying AFOS PIL: TCDEP3 Product Timestamp: 1997-10-06 09:00 UTC
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630 WTPZ43 KNHC 060834 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM PAULINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT MON OCT 06 1997 THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP. THERE IS NOW A BANDING FEATURE WHICH WRAPS MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THE CYCLONE...SIGNIFYING THAT IT HAS LIKELY REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THUS THE SYSTEM IS BEING NAMED. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB MIAMI AND SAB WASHINGTON. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE. FURTHER GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/06. THERE IS NOW A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE GUIDANCE MODELS THAN WE HAD EARLIER...EVEN THOUGH WE STILL HAVE A COUPLE OF OUTLIERS. MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK PREDICTIONS... INCLUDING THE GFDL... SHOW A GENERAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER THE DEEP LAYER BAM...U.K. MET AND THE BAROTROPIC MODEL SHOW A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE NORTHWARD TURN BUT IS GENERALLY SLOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...SINCE THERE STILL A FAIR DEGREE OF DIVERSITY IN THE MODEL TRACKS. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULINE. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 11.9N 94.6W 40 KTS 12HR VT 06/1800Z 12.0N 93.8W 45 KTS 24HR VT 07/0600Z 12.5N 93.8W 50 KTS 36HR VT 07/1800Z 13.2N 93.8W 55 KTS 48HR VT 08/0600Z 14.0N 94.0W 60 KTS 72HR VT 09/0600Z 15.5N 94.5W 70 KTS