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603 
WTPZ41 KNHC 252055
TCDEP1
TROPICAL STORM NORA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU SEP 25 1997
 
RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CENTER MOVING DUE NORTH.   
EARLIER...YUMA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF HURRICANE FORCE
WINDS ABOUT 4000 FEET ABOVE THE GROUND.  THAT AREA APPARENTLY HAS
DISSIPATED. THE INNER CIRCULATION IS NOW WEAKENING RAPIDLY AND
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 40 KT.  GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...ESPECIALLY NEAR DEEP
CONVECTION AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.  THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS...
AND HEAVIEST RAINS...HAVE BEEN LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
 
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE TRACK OF THE REMNANT CENTER
BECOMING NNE OR NE IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH
SHOWS A CONTINUED NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS BETWEEN
THESE OPTIONS.  EITHER WAY...THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS BECOMING
LESS AND LESS RELEVANT.  RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...BUT WILL END
SHORTLY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA.  SEE INFORMATION
FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
 
NORA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN THE NEXT
6 TO 12 HOURS.   NOW THAT COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...THE NEXT PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED 6 HOURS FROM
NOW...AT 0300Z. 

RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 32.7N 114.8W    40 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 36.0N 114.3W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     26/1800Z 39.0N 112.0W    25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     27/0600Z...DISSIPATED